Please note, I am talking about downward revisions of the objectives, and not necessarily decreases. At this stage and as we will soon see, the sum of the results of CAC40 companies should increase by nearly 9% between 2021 and 2022.
This presentation will be relatively quick. My goal is to follow up with you on this metric between each quarterly publication to see how it evolves.
On this first visual (heatmap), you will find the estimated earnings for the 2022 financial year (average of analysts’ expectations) for each company making up the CAC40 index. The sum of these estimates is €148.5 billion. I had to put the value codes to simplify the table: TTE for TotalEnergies, MC for LVMH, etc.
Estimated 2022 profits of CAC40 companies in billions of euros. Sum = €148.5 billion
Now, with the help of a second visual, we will see the contribution of the growth of the profits of these same companies on the total evolution.
Growth breakdown of profits (M€) of CAC40 companies.
It should be noted that I have chosen to take 2021 results from continuing operations as a basis, which eliminates the exceptional results of the companies. This adjustment is significant since in 2021, major transactions took place at certain groups such as Vivendi, which sold UMG. While the group’s 2021 net profit stands at €24.7 billion, the result from continuing operations is -€538 million.
To understand this waterfall chart we will take the example of TotalEnergies. In 2021, the group’s net profit from continuing operations stood at €13.8 billion. The analysts in charge of the file estimate that in 2022 profits will be €20.2 billion, i.e. a growth of around €6.4 billion (+46%). This is the most important contribution to the growth of total CAC40 profits between 2021 and 2022. This is not surprising because the first visual already showed us that the weight of profits from TotalEnergies was very significant. However, some variations may be more interesting to analyze. For example, the expected growth for Orange is €2 billion (4th highest contribution according to the waterfall chart, behind Total Energies, ArcelorMittal and Société Générale) whereas if we stick to the first visual, its contribution in the sum of the expected benefits is less significant.
To date, expected earnings growth for the CAC40 as a whole is 8.7%. We go from €136.7 to €148.5 billion. We will come back to these figures after the end of the Q1 publications.