(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris stock market ends the day at the highest of the day, at 6,362 points, driven by a gain of 2.52%, an upward trend which is also blowing over London (+2.6%), Frankfurt (+2.1%) and the E-Stoxx50 (+2.5).
On Wall Street, the expected +1.5% increase is on track with the S&P500 at +2.3%, the Dow Jones at +1.6% and the Nasdaq at +3.5% (the title Twitter however falls by 10% while Elon Musk calls into question the takeover of ‘the blue bird’ because of ‘misleading figures’ on its subscribers and its turnover).
Investors are nevertheless showing extreme levels of pessimism (‘fear & greed index’ at the lowest since mid-March 2020) due to the increasingly credible prospect of an ECB rate hike from July.
After a spectacular decline of -15pts the previous day, our OATs tightened by +8pts towards 1.464%.
The consumer price index in France rose by 4.8% last month (after +4.5% in March according to INSEE).
This acceleration in inflation results from that for the prices of services (+3%), food (+3.8%) and manufactured goods (+2.6%), while the prices of energy slowed down but remained up sharply (+26.5%).
Inflation worries Germany even more (7.4% in final Destatis data): the German Bund tightens by +8.5Pts to 0.9530%, the Italian BTP by +14Pts to 2.854% (still close to 100Pts bonus with the Bund).
And the US T-Bonds also posted +10Pts to 2.917% after the publication of the import price indices which stagnated at +2.9% in March (+12% annual).
US export prices increased by 0.6% (+0.5% excluding agricultural products), or +18% compared to April 2021.
On the data side in Europe, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell 1.8% in the euro zone and 1.2% in the EU in March sequentially, according to Eurostat, after sequential increases of 0.5%. and 0.6% respectively in February.
‘The fall in industrial production in March shows that the war in Ukraine is having a severe impact on manufacturers’, reacts Capital Economics, specifying that this contraction is largely due to a 5% drop in Germany.
‘With new Russian energy import bans looming and supply shortages remaining acute, we believe this is the start of a manufacturing recession that will cause GDP to stagnate,’ he warns. .
It should however be remembered that Russia stops exporting a gas that Europeans pay with a Euro which is immediately ‘confiscated’, which means that it delivers gas free of charge when it is not paid for in roubles.
It remains to discover April Michigan consumer confidence.
On the foreign exchange front, after its 5-year low at 1.035, the Euro is stagnating at 1.0390 but the impression of great fragility prevails.
In French company news, Saint-Gobain announces that it has finalized two targeted acquisitions in special films and high performance refractories, namely Global SFC and Monofrax LLC, which represent approximately 20 million euros in annual sales .
Bouygues announces that it has signed the contract for the acquisition of Equans with Engie, an operation whose finalization is still expected in the second half of 2022.
Finally, Orpea (+2.9%) publishes for 2021 a net income group share of 65 million euros (-60%), compared to 160 million the previous year, a drop reflecting in particular provisions for risks and charges. relating to the risks estimated following administrative inspections in France (the group supports 8 billion euros in debt and is considering 3 billion euros in asset disposals.
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