(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange (+0.26%) ends the 3rd quarter on a positive final note but the rebound of the CAC40 remains ‘friable’: the flagship index has lost more than half of its gains since the opening of Wall Street and fell to around 7,135 against 7,203 around 3:40 p.m.
Thanks to the rebound on Thursday and Friday, the CAC ends the week with a parity score but shows a decline of -2.2% over the whole month of September and -3% since June 30.
The quarterly results are even more negative on the US indices with -3% on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, -4.5% on the Russell 2000.
The quarter will no longer end at its lowest thanks to the rebound of 0.6% in the S&P500 towards 4,330 (compared to 4,240 on Wednesday) and +1% in the Nasdaq towards 13,340 (compared to 12,960 at its lowest on Wednesday morning).
The indices as a whole have absolutely not flinched in one direction or the other with the publication of household expenditure/income and the highly anticipated ‘PCE’ index in the United States.
This statistic results in a ‘non-event’: household consumption expenditure increased by 0.4% last month compared to the previous one in the United States, according to the Department of Commerce, an increase fairly consistent with expectations, for revenues also growing by 0.4%.
But above all, the ‘PCE’ price inflation index stood at 3.5% at an annual rate for August. The ‘PCE Core’ (excluding food products and energy) fell from 4.3% to 3.9% from one month to the next.
Inflation still with the first consumer price figures in the Euro zone for the month of September.
The euro zone’s annual inflation rate is estimated at 4.3% in September 2023, down significantly from 5.2% in August, according to a flash estimate published this morning by Eurostat, the statistical office of the ‘European Union.
Inflation in Europe has continued to decline over the last ten months: after peaking at 10.6% in October 2022, it was only 5.2% in August.
These figures are very well received and rates relax very significantly, from -14Pts on Bunds to 2.828% and our OATs erase -15Pts to 3.3850%.
But the recent rebound in oil prices reminded investors that the energy component was very erratic, and therefore likely to cause large variations from one month to the next.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds – which had rocketed towards 4.70% yesterday during the session to establish a new high since 2007 – relaxed by -7Pts to return below the 4.60% mark, to 4.533 %.
The lull on the US bond market logically penalizes the dollar, which is undergoing some profit-taking after reaching an 11-month zenith this week, thus allowing the euro to rise towards 1.0575 against the greenback (the Dollar Index fell -0.2% below 106 but gained 0.5% over the week,).
Oil prices are stabilizing ($95.3 in London for Brent), unaffected by the modest rebound in world stock markets while the outlook for the world economy is becoming increasingly gloomy.
After having soared by 30% since June, the barrel of American light crude oil remains close to $92 (weekly gain of +2%) while US oil reserves remain at their lowest level in 35 years.
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