(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris stock market remains literally frozen close to equilibrium with a symbolic decline of -0.1 to -0.2%, around a pivot of 7285 points, the Euro-Stoxx50 remains positive by a handful of points towards 4.250.
The scores did not change either on Wall Street, which remained slightly down (the Dow Jones fell -0.3%, the ‘S&P’ -0.1%) after the publication of American consumer confidence: expected in increase, it deteriorated again in February, according to the survey published by the Conference Board.
After a buoyant start to the year, the bullish momentum has stopped and investors are wondering: is the pause movement of the last few weeks only temporary or could it be prolonged?
If the recovery of the day before suggests a certain renewed optimism about growth, the recent procrastination of the market also testify to a certain fatigue after the sharp rise at the start of the year.
And above all, over the past 4 weeks, asset allocations have largely favored Europe with a CAC40 gaining +3.3% and a Euro-Stoxx50 gaining +2.5% since the performances are almost the opposite for the indices US.
The Dow Jones lost -3.3% in February, the S&P500 -2.5%, the Nasdaq -1%.
No reaction on Wall Street on Tuesday to the confidence barometer of the ‘Conf’Board’ which fell to 102.9 against 106 last month, while economists expected it on average around 108.
While the component of consumers’ judgment of their current situation improved from 151.1 to 152.8 month-on-month, that measuring their expectations fell to 69.7, from 76 last month. .
In Europe, the ‘fact of the day’ concerns the inflation figures in France, which are rebounding more than expected (consumer prices are expected to increase by 6.2% in February 2023, after +6% the previous month), as well as than in Europe.
The context remains inevitably marked by the uncertainties related to the evolution of the monetary policies of the central banks: the objectives of ‘final rates’ increased by +50Pts compared to the beginning of January (5.60% for the FED and 4% for the ECB).
This morning, the slowdown in growth was also confirmed in France. In the fourth quarter of 2022, France’s real GDP growth slowed again (+0.1% quarter-on-quarter, after +0.2% in the third quarter), according to detailed CVS-CJO data from INSEE. , which thus confirms his first estimate.
With a decline in imports (‑0.4%) and exports still on the rise (+0.5%), the contribution of foreign trade is positive (+0.3 points), as is that of changes in inventories (+0.2 points).
The rise in the inflation rate to 6.2% would be due to the acceleration in the prices of food and services.
The prices of manufactured products should increase over one year at a rate close to the previous month and those of energy should slow down, according to the provisional estimate produced by INSEE at the end of the month.
French household consumption expenditure on goods increased sharply over one month, by 1.5% in volume after a fall of 1.6% in December 2022 (revised from an initial estimate which was -1.3%), according to CVS-CJO data from INSEE.
This rebound is mainly due to the sharp increase in energy consumption (+4%) as a result of the energy check.
Finally, in January 2023, production prices in French industry accelerated over one month (+1.6% after +1%), due to the sharp acceleration in those of products intended for the French market (+2.7 %), while those of products intended for external markets fell back (-1.7%).
On the bond market, the deterioration continues with long rates which flirt with their worst levels since the end of December and even mid-October: our OATs showed around 3:45 p.m. up to +12Pts at 3.178% (worst level for 12 years, the ‘ 2 years’ is at 3.25%), the Bunds +11Pts at 2.697%, the Italian BTPs +13.5Pts at 4.558%, the British ‘Gilts’ +11.5Pts at 3.9250%.
The US T-Bonds are doing the best with +3pts at 3.9530% but the ‘6 months’ shows 5.16% and the ‘1 year’ 5.05%.
In corporate news, Casino posted revenue of 33.6 billion euros for the year 2022, up 10% in published data and 5.2% on a like-for-like basis, ‘driven by the Latin America and promising formats in France, in an environment marked by inflation’.
EDF announced on Tuesday the conversion of 40% of its Océanes maturing in 2024, in accordance with a request made by the French State as part of the process of renationalization of the electrician.
AXA announces the successful sale of 100 million Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena shares, representing approximately 7.94% of the capital of the Italian bank, at a price of 2.33 euros per share, i.e. a total amount of 233 million euros.
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