CAC40: gloomy context, the risk of recession hovers


(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange ended the day by climbing 0.14%, to 5,931 points, thus starting the 3rd quarter in a very laborious way (-2.3% weekly), in a gloomy European context (- 0.2% on the E-Stoxx50, -0.1% in London, +0.2% in Frankfurt).

Wall Street had opened slightly down before heading up (+0.5%) then undergoing a sharp downturn after 4 p.m. with the publication of the two leading activity indicators – the PMI and the ISM manufacturer- of the month of June: they both fell sharply and posted their worst scores since the start of summer 2020.

Thus, the expansion of the American manufacturing sector slowed sharply in June, according to the S&P Global PMI index, which fell to 52.7, against 57.0 in May, thus returning to its lowest level since July 2020. .

Investigators say manufacturing output remained broadly stable while new orders fell. Production expectations have also fallen to their lowest level since October 2020.

Confirming this unfavorable trend in the sector, the ISM manufacturing index fell from 56.1 in May to 53.0 in June, thus also approaching the fateful bar of 50 separating expansion and contraction of the activity.

The US indices are down slightly, with -0.1% by the Nasdaq and S&P500 and -0.2% for the Dow Jones.

The ‘fact of the day’ remains the spectacular easing of rates with ten-year Treasuries which fell significantly below the 3% mark (-14Pts to 2.345%) prolonging the decline started at the beginning of the week in a context of search for quality which is explained by fears of an upcoming recession.

In Europe, further rate easing at an accelerated pace with -18pts on our OATs at 1.765%, Bunds -16pts at 1.2060%, Italian BTPs down -25pts towards 3.145%.

Another ‘shock figure’ of the day is the inflation rate, which soared to 8.6% in the Eurozone and thus returned to parity with the US inflation rate.

A strong sign of concerns about growth, oil prices are accelerating their decline, with a barrel of American light crude oil (WTI) currently yielding 3%, and a barrel of Brent is down -3.2% towards $111.
Industrial metals fall by -3% on average (such as copper), platinum by -4%, silver by -5% towards $19.5.

Markets tried to reassure themselves with China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) coming in at 50.2 in June, down from 49.6 in May, according to sources. data published by the State Bureau of Statistics.

In the services sector, the IDA index stood at 54.7 in June, against 47.8 in May, according to the NBS.

For the record, an index above 50 points signifies an expansion, while an index below this level reflects a contraction in activity.

In France and Europe, the PMI indicators are more mixed. In France, the S&P Global PMI buyers’ index for the manufacturing sector fell from 54.6 in May to 51.4 in June, thus posting its lowest level for 18 months, pulled down in particular by a decline in new orders and production.

According to S&P Global, sharp price increases have translated into falling demand, while falling new orders and growing uncertainty have pushed production levels down.

In the euro zone, the final S&P Global PMI for the manufacturing industry stood at 52.1 in June, against 54.6 the previous month, and thus reflects the weakest expansion in the sector for 22 months.

Eurozone manufacturing conditions deteriorated at the end of the second quarter as production fell for the first time in two years, but S&P Global is seeing signs of stabilization in supply chains.

In the news of French companies, Sodexo publishes revenue for its third quarter 2021-22 of 5.5 billion euros, up 23.2%, including a contribution from acquisitions net of disposals of -1.7%, more than offset by a currency effect of +6.6%.

ArcelorMittal announces that it has completed the acquisition of an 80% stake in Voestalpine’s hot briquetted iron (HBI) plant in Texas, an acquisition that values ​​local operations at $1 billion.

Alstom has completed the transfer of activities related to Bombardier Transportation’s contribution to the V300ZEFIRO very high-speed train to Hitachi Rail.

Airbus confirms the signing of orders with Air China, China Eastern, China Southern and Shenzhen Airlines for a total of 292 A320 Family aircraft, “demonstrating the recovery momentum and prosperous prospects of the Chinese market”.

Finally, Worldline indicates that it has finalized the acquisition of Eurobank’s merchant acquiring activities, Eurobank Merchant Acquiring (EBMA), card acquirer on the dynamic Greek market, with a share of 21% of transaction volumes processed in the country.

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