(CercleFinance.com) – (CercleFinance.com) -The Paris Stock Exchange (-0.1%) will have to fight to finish in the green, despite an increase of +1% in the S&P500 and the Nasdaq (+0.7% on the Dow Jones) after the publication of the ‘NFP’ (employment report) which confirms a clear deceleration in hiring in the United States.
The CAC40 could achieve a 5th session of increase in a row for a weekly gain of +4.1% which could appear among the 3 best of the year 2023.
The euro-Stoxx50 will achieve this without difficulty with an advance of +0.3% 30 minutes from the close.
But if the scores are flattering, purchase volumes remain almost non-existent in Paris, with only €1.3 billion exchanged in 6 hours, despite the collection which continues on Worldline (+6%) Téléperformance and Alstom (+5%) .
Reminder: Worldline and Alstom lost 45% and 38% respectively in one month.
The highlight of the week resonated with the report on employment in the United States: the American economy generated only 150,000 non-agricultural jobs in the month of October, according to the Department of Labor, a lower number to market expectations (180,000).
‘Employment gains were recorded in health care, administration and social assistance, while employment declined in the manufacturing sector due to strikes,’ explains the Labor Department.
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 point to 3.9% of the active population (in line with Jefferies’ expectation), the labor force participation rate stood at 62.7%, and average hourly income increased at an annual rate of 4.1%.
In addition, job creations for the previous two months were revised downward, from 227,000 to 165,000 for August and from 336,000 to 297,000 for September, for a total revision balance of -101,000 for these two months.
These figures favor the continuation of the improvement on US T-Bonds with -13Pts on the ’10 years’ at 4.545%… i.e. -40Pts compared to last Friday and the ’30 years’ relapsed by -12Pts below 4 .75% compared to 5.05% a week ago.
The ‘2 years’ falls below 4.90%
The upward dynamic in yields is in the process of reversing downwards while the FED’s ‘pivot’ is now anticipated from June 2024 and no longer September 2024.
The speakers discovered the ISM services index: it fell to 51.8, after having stood at 53.6 in September, while economists expected a more limited decline towards 53.
The new orders component improved to 55.5 from 51.8 the previous month, while the employment subindex fell to 50.2 from 53.4 in September.
The component measuring activity decreased to 54.1 compared to 58.8 the month before.
Still on the statistics front, but in Europe, French production falls again in September 2023 in the manufacturing industry (-0.4% after -0.3% in August) as in industry as a whole ( -0.5% after -0.1%), according to CVS-CJO data from INSEE.
In particular, production fell back in transport equipment (-4.3%, including -5.8% in automobiles), agri-food industries (-1.4%), as well as extractive industries, energy, water (‑0.8%) and capital goods (‑0.5%).
Rates are also easing at high speed in the Eurozone with -7Pts for our OATs at 3.244% (-21Pts weekly) and -6Pts for Bunds at 2.652% (-18Pts weekly).
One of the ‘major facts’ of this week, in addition to the polarity reversal on rates, is the sharp decline in the Dollar, and the symmetrical rise in the Euro of +1% towards $1.07300, i.e. +1.5% gain over the week.
The ‘$-Index’ falls by -0.9% towards 105.15 and comes out from the bottom of a 107/105.55 corridor, which constitutes a major bearish indication.
In the news of French companies, Société Générale publishes a net profit share of the group of 295 million euros for the third quarter of 2023, down 79.6% in annual comparison, under the weight of certain exceptional elements without which it stood at 905 million.
On the occasion of its quarterly publication, Spie adjusts its annual objectives to now aim for organic growth above +7% (and no longer at least +6%), with an EBITA margin still expected to increase by about 30 basis points.
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