(CercleFinance.com) – 40 minutes from the close, the Paris Stock Exchange is holding firm: the -1% fall in the US indices remains without impact (the Nasdaq yields -0.9% while Tesla falls by -5% with lower demand in China).
The loss of the CAC40 remains contained -0.5 and the 6,700 level is easily preserved.
However, this remains a little disappointing since the index was moving this morning at 6,750, a level corresponding to that of January 24, exactly one month before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Everything happens as if it had never happened and that no shortage of energy affects production costs or growth (the boycott of Russian oil and diesel begins this Monday, December 5, and prices feel on Brent like NYMEX with +3% on average).
There is no selling pressure since less than 1.5 billion euros have been traded in the space of 6 hours… it seems that the truce of the confectioners has already started as the activity is weak.
If the CAC40 ends up breaking its intermediate resistance of 6,745 points, nothing will be able to thwart the bullish current in which the Parisian index has been evolving since the beginning of autumn.
While the upper levels of 6,780 and 6,815 points are getting closer, the second important lock on the rise is at 6,850 points, a major resistance par excellence that would free the CAC towards its peaks at the start of the year.
Strategists continue to invoke the optimism aroused by the easing of anti-Covid measures: what do these ‘easings’ mean (under close surveillance) when giant ‘sanitary’ camps (up to 246,000 isolation cells) are in being completed on the outskirts of major Chinese cities.
Why invest billions there (this requires titanic logistics) to accommodate millions of people if the ‘zero Covid is really going to be abandoned?
While China is still facing an upsurge in cases of contamination by the coronavirus, several Chinese cities have relaxed this weekend the traffic restrictions linked to the Covid.
But any exit from cities is often conditioned by the presentation of a ‘green QR-Code’ at checkpoints installed on all traffic routes and in stations… but these details do not undermine the optimism of investors, which allowed Chinese stock markets to continue their recent recovery on Monday.
The Hang Seng Index, the flagship index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, posted gains of 4.2% at the end of trading today, while the CSI 300 index of mainland China large caps gained more than 1.8%. .
The week that opens today will give investors the opportunity to make their final adjustments to their positions while waiting for the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for December 13 and 14.
In terms of figures, Wall Street does not know how to interpret the activity figures in the tertiary sector: once again PMI and ISM make a diametrically opposed reading, for reasons that are difficult to clarify.
According to the PMI-S&P Global index, the contraction in activity in the American services sector deepened in the United States in November, to 46.2 last month, against 47.8 in October (46, 1 in the so-called ‘flash’ preliminary version).
Economic research firm reports economic ‘malaise’ now spreading from manufacturing to service sector, with data suggesting US GDP down about 1% in fourth quarter on an annualized basis.
Conversely, the monthly survey of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published this same Monday indicates that the growth of activity increased in November in this same American service sector: the barometer of purchasing managers rose from 54.4 in October to 56.5 in November, a 30th consecutive month of expansion.
Anthony Nieves, the study’s author, talks about the ‘increased business capabilities and shorter lead times that have led to continued improvement in supply chain and logistics performance while the holiday season has contributed to stronger business activity and increased employment.
The eurozone’s private sector contracted for the fifth straight month in November, the S&P Global PMI survey released on Monday showed.
The analyst firm’s final composite PMI – which measures overall activity in the region – came in at 47.8 last month, down from 47.3 in October.
Seasonally adjusted retail sales volume fell by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU, compared to September 2022, according to Eurostat estimates,
the statistical office of the European Union.
In September 2022, retail trade volume increased by
0.8% in the euro zone and in the EU.
In October 2022, compared to October 2021, the calendar-adjusted retail sales index fell by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU.
On the bond compartment, the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds jumped by +7pts, to 3.570% and European benchmark yields changed little: +2pts to 2.33% against 2.310% on our OATs and +3pts to 1.88% on the 10-year German Bund (unchanged).
The Euro reverses steam and relapses by -0.2% against the $, at 1.0500 and the Dollar-Index recovers 0.4% towards 104.95.
As for oil prices, they jumped by +3% ($88 in London) while OPEC+ agreed on Sunday not to change its current production targets. On the NYMEX, the barrel of American light crude oil (WTI) also jumped by +3% towards $82.4.
On the securities side, TotalEnergies and Air France-KLM have signed a memorandum of understanding for the supply, by TotalEnergies, of more than one million cubic meters, or 800,000 tonnes, of sustainable aviation fuel (or SAF , Sustainable Aviation Fuel) to the companies of the Air France-KLM Group over a period of 10 years, starting in 2023.
On the occasion of the Nautic de Paris, Bruno Thivoyon, CEO of the Beneteau group, presented the Group’s results and outlook.
Consolidated turnover should exceed 1.4 billion euros, up 15% on that of 2021. The Group should reach or exceed its latest forecast for current operating profit – from 120 to 125 ME – which would thus increase by more by 30%.
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