(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange begins the session on a positive note Wednesday morning, but the differences look relatively limited a few hours before the American inflation figures and on the eve of the ECB meeting. The CAC40 index is trading around 8095 points, up 0.6%.
After the delays of the last few days, the second part of the week will be busy with several important meetings on the program, in particular the consumer price figures in the United States which will be published this afternoon.
The statistic is closely watched by the Federal Reserve and should help it determine when it will begin cutting rates, a prospect that has largely contributed to the rise in equity markets this year.
With this in mind, the strong indicators recently published across the Atlantic were warmly welcomed by investors worried about seeing the central bank postpone the start of its monetary easing.
‘The trend is still upward, but the market is lacking a little enthusiasm,’ admits Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM this morning.
The markets seem less and less to count on a rate cut in June and now favor the scenario of a first reduction in the interest rate in the third quarter, that is to say in July at the earliest.
‘It is obvious that the consumer price index figure will be closely scrutinized by operators to find out if this calendar needs to be revised,’ warns Christopher Dembik.
The consensus of economists forecasts a slowdown in core CPI inflation to 3.7% year-on-year in March, compared to 3.8% in February.
‘Today’s data promises to be crucial because if it comes out above expectations for a third consecutive month, it will be increasingly difficult for the Fed to explain that it is only a question of a temporary anomaly’, believes Jim Reid, market analyst at Deutsche Bank.
The American inflation statistics will be followed tomorrow by the ECB’s monetary policy announcements, which should not lead to any concrete decision while again awaiting more clear evidence of the continuation of the disinflation process.
Among the other indicators on the menu for this weekend should be other indicators on inflation in the United States, namely industrial production prices, expected tomorrow, then import prices which will fall on Friday.
Investors will also follow the start of the earnings season for American companies, which will be given as usual on Friday by the major banking groups JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
According to analysts, positive surprises would be able to encourage a recovery in the stock markets, which seem to be lagging somewhat since the end of March after their great start to the year.
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