(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange lost a little altitude as Wall Street went back into the red: but still gained nearly 0.4% at 1/2 hour from the close.
The flagship index is around 7,237 against 7,250 points (annual record) around 4:10 p.m.
The CAC40 ‘GR’ just posted a new absolute record an hour ago at 21,300 (ie +12% since January 1 and +29.2% in 20 weeks of increase).
The CAC40 is supported by a bullish context in Europe with an E-Stoxx50 up +0.2%, Milan +0.4% and Madrid +0.5%.
On Wall Street, the indices show a slightly negative trend: the Dow Jones loses -0.4%, the S&P500 -0.2 and the Nasdaq -0.1%.
Investors received without emotion the +0.5% rise in the CPI in January.
According to the Labor Department, the US consumer price index rose 6.4% in January over 12 months, an annual rate still at the lowest since October 2021, but slightly above economists’ expectations.
Excluding energy (+8.7%) and food products (+10.1%), two traditionally volatile categories, the annual ‘core’ inflation rate stood at 5.6% last month, a level that also a little above that anticipated by the market on average (5.4%) with an increase in the price of ‘services’ which undermines the scenario of a decline towards 3% by the end of the ‘year.
The consensus regarding the ‘final rate’ of the FED is mostly expected at 5.50% and the 5.25% is no longer as consensual as before the ‘NFP’.
Sequentially, i.e. between December 2022 and January 2023, consumer prices in the United States increased by 0.5% in raw data, and by 0.4% excluding energy and food products.
‘Disinflation is certainly underway, as Jerome Powell has acknowledged in his recent speeches, but it is not uniform: very strong for energy, slower for most goods, non-existent for
services’, emphasize the Oddo BHF teams.
In France, we discovered at the start of the day the unemployment rate as defined by the ILO (International Labor Office) calculated by INSEE for France. This was almost stable (‑0.1 point) in the fourth quarter of 2022, at 7.2% of the working population in France (excluding Mayotte).
“This is its lowest level since the first quarter of 2008, if we except for the one-off ‘trompe-l’oeil’ drop in the second quarter of 2020, during the first confinement”, underlines INSEE which publishes these figures.
The number of unemployed persons as defined by the ILO fell by 45,000 compared to the previous quarter, to 2.2 million. On the other hand, the ‘halo around unemployment’ (inactive people in the sense of the ILO but wanting a job) increased by 38,000 to 1.9 million.
It is thus one point lower than its level before the health crisis… but the ‘grooming’ of the workforce of people registered with Pôle Emploi broke all-time records in 2022.
The bond markets have been deteriorating a little since 4 p.m.: US T-Bonds have risen from 3.72% to 3.763% (they had eased to 3.68% this morning: back to square one).
In Europe, our OATs show +4.6pts at 2.88%, Bunds +5pt at 2.4220%… but Italian BTPs are stable.
The Dollar wiped out its losses at 1.0730E while it fell 1 hour earlier by -0.4ù towards 1.0770 against the Euro.
In corporate news, Michelin announced last night sales of 28.6 billion euros for the 2022 financial year, up 20.2% compared to the previous financial year. Net income increased by 8.9%, to 2009 ME for 2022, i.e. net income per share of 2.81 euros, against 2.58 euros a year earlier.
Also yesterday evening Rothschild & Co. published a turnover of 2.9 billion euros for the financial year 2022, up 1% compared to the same period a year earlier. Net profit is finally down 21% to 606 ME, with EPS also down 21% to 8.38 euros.
M6 publishes consolidated revenue of 1,357 ME for the 2022 financial year, down 2.4% compared to the previous financial year, while the net profit group share for the period amounted to 161.5 ME, down 42.5% in one year.
This morning, TF1 unveiled net income group share down 21.8% to 176.1 million euros for the past year, as well as current operating income of 316.2 million, i.e. margin rate down 1.5 points to 12.6%.
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