(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange started Friday’s session up sharply as investors welcome with relief (finally) the many announcements made the day before by the ECB and this first increase of 75 pts in the 3 key rates.
One hour before closing, the CAC40 index (+1.7%) seems to be trying to end the week at its highest (it will be necessary to aim for +1.8% at 6,239 points), which should allow it to end the week on a positive score of +1%.
The Euro-Stoxx50 is even more enthusiastic with a gain of more than 1.9% to 3,580 Pts, in the wake of the DAX (+1.7% to 13,120).
Wall Street confirms its initial rise and gains are growing with the Dow Jones and the S&P500 gaining +1.2%, +1.4%.
The bond markets are behaving better than this morning or this noon: the T-Bond 2032 eases by -1.5Pt to 3.2760% but this is not the case for the ‘1 year’ at 3.61%, the ‘2 years’ at 2.560% and ’30 years’ at 3.46% (the curve remains well inverted, this is the sign of the persistence of an anticipation of recession).
Note this solid rebound in oil with a barrel of ‘Brent’ which took nearly +4% to $92.05 in London.
The ECB put an end to weeks of suspense yesterday by raising all of its key rates by 75 basis points, a decision widely awaited by investors.
The central bank’s monetary policy statement and the press conference given by Christine Lagarde, its president, have also reinforced expectations of further rate hikes by the end of the year.
At the same time, the institution lowered its growth forecasts and raised its inflation outlook, highlighting soaring energy and food prices, pressures weighing on demand and the many bottlenecks bottleneck on the supply side.
Investors mainly noted that the ECB wanted to take its next decisions step by step, depending on the available indicators, without conforming to a pre-established plan.
‘We anticipate a transition phase that will allow it to switch to 25 basis point hikes next year as part of a change in approach from a normalization of its monetary policy towards a tightening cycle’ , explains Konstantin Veit, portfolio manager at PIMCO.
The members of the ECB also considered that it was too early to envisage a reduction in the balance sheet of the institution and that the question would be discussed in due course, when inflation would be under control.
On the bond market, the ECB’s speech propelled the yield of the German Bund towards 1.74%… but the trend is improving with the Bund which is now improving at 1.685% (-2n5Pts), our OATs which come back from 2.35% (re-test of the worst level of the year recorded on June 14 and 16 at 2.39%) towards 2.265% (stability).
In terms of figures, wholesale inventories rose 0.6% in July 2022 sequentially in the United States, according to the Commerce Department, after an increase of 1.8% the previous month (figure confirmed compared to the initial estimate).
Wholesale sales for their part fell by 1.4% in July.
The Euro took the opportunity to recover +0.5% towards 1.005, gold ($1,715) and silver remained almost stable.
Investors will now await the decision of the Fed, which will meet on September 20 and 21 to proceed, in turn, with a continuation of its monetary tightening.
The money market now estimates at 84% the probability of a rate hike of 75 basis points from the US Federal Reserve in two weeks.
Until then, investors will be scrutinizing the economic statistics with great interest, knowing that the session will be calm from this point of view, simply animated by the publication of inventories from American wholesalers this afternoon.
On the stock side, the Airbus group has published Airbus commercial aircraft orders and deliveries for the month of August 2022. Deliveries for the month of August 2022 stand at 39 deliveries to 22 customers and orders for August 2022 are 0. 2022 deliveries to date are 382 deliveries to 62 customers in the year.
Moody’s said Technicolor’s ‘Caa2’ financial strength rating was placed under review with positive implications last night. The agency explains that this decision follows the announcement, at the beginning of the week, of the approval by the shareholders of the group of the project of splitting and listing into two separate companies, which will be effective on September 27.
Interparfums publishes for the first half of 2022 a net profit group share up 19% to 54.2 million euros and an operating profit up 9% to 71.8 million, i.e. an improved margin of nearly one point at 22.5%.
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