(CercleFinance.com) – Fortunately, Wall Street is resourceful and buyers seem impatient to ‘pay’ for the first ‘hiccup’ of the year 2024, and even the first decline above -1.5% in a few hours observed since the end of October.
The US indices appear resilient, initial gains (+0.3%) have practically tripled with the S&P500 at +0.7% and the Nasdaq at +0.9% (compared to -1.45% the day before).
The slogan ‘buy all the dips’ still seems relevant in New York, it remains a little more timid in Europe with the Euro-Stoxx50 which drops -1.3 to -1.4% but is fighting to preserve the 5,000.
No problem, however, on the CAC40 side to preserve the 8,000: the index reduces its losses a little, from -1.6% this morning (around 8,020) towards -1.2% at 8,055, or -1.8% over the week.
But 35 minutes from the close, there are still 35 CAC40 stocks in the red, in volumes of not very ‘significant’ (E1.75 billion).
Eurofins drops -4.7%, Bouygues and Véolia -3%, LVMH -2.8% (breakage of 800E support in the process).
The publication of the US ‘NFP’ at 2:30 p.m. was eagerly awaited… and as is often the case when a figure is presented as the ‘market mover of the week’, we are witnessing a ‘non-event’.
New demonstration with a lack of reaction on both equities and interest rate markets.
The US economy created more jobs than expected in March, shows the monthly report from the Labor Department released Friday.
Wall Street, which was expected to rise by 0.2%, displays +0.3%, with scores for once very homogeneous, from the Dow Jones to the Nasdaq (identical scores the day after declines ranging between -1.3 and – 1.5%, the biggest drop of the year).
The monthly ‘NFP’ report recorded 303,000 non-agricultural jobs created last month in the United States, compared to 270,000 (revised from 275,000) in February, while the consensus collected by Reuters predicted only 200,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March, from 3.9% the previous month (Reuters consensus unchanged at 3.9%).
The increase in average hourly wages – a closely monitored component – accelerated to +0.3% in March, after +0.2% in February (consensus of +0.3%) but its progression slowed slightly to 4.1% against +4.3% (annualized) the previous month, which coincides with the consensus of 4.1%.
‘Labor market signals are not weak enough to offset upside surprises on inflation. Hence the status quo of the Fed’, explain the analysts at Oddo BHF.
Proof of the great sensitivity of the markets to this theme, Wall Street was the victim of a rare reversal of steam yesterday evening following statements by Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed.
He warned that ‘if inflation continued to follow successive sequences of decline then occasional bursts, the question would arise as to whether we should not abandon any rate cut this year’.
If some strategists only see a slight slump within an underlying trend which remains bullish, others evoke a prelude to a correction which is now inevitable… and the stress went up a notch on Thursday evening with a ‘VIX’ which jumped +14% in 2 and a half hours, going from 13.7 to 16.50.
‘The strong start to the year signed by the stock markets increases the risk of renewed volatility in the short term,’ warns Larry Adam, investment director at Raymond James.
“The latter usually experience between three to four sequences of correction of at least 5% per year, and the last one currently dates back to September 2023,” he recalls.
There were also figures on the agenda this morning in Europe: production rebounded in France over one month in the manufacturing industry (+0.9% after -1.5% in January) and overall of industry (+0.2% after -0.9%), according to data adjusted for seasonal variations and working days from INSEE.
The bond markets remain ‘heavy’ with OATs and Bunds rising by +4.8 and +5 points to 2.912% and 2.4060% respectively, Italian BTPs showing +7 points to 3.78500%.
The T-Bonds came to re-test the crucial resistance of 4.400% before balancing towards 4.3800% (+7Pts)… but the scenario of a return towards 4.500% is becoming more and more plausible.
The Dollar stabilizes around 1.0830/E, after a decline of -0.6% since Monday.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the drop in Russian refining capacity continue to maintain pressure on oil: the barrel of ‘Brent’ (+0.2%) oscillates around $91.3, the ‘WTI’ around $86.8, that is to say in contact with the annual records tested the day before.
The ‘geopolitical fact’ continues to push gold upwards (+1%) beyond $2,320 (new zenith at $2,323, or +4% weekly), silver stalls slightly below $27 (-1% but +7.8% over the week).
In company news, in response to press rumors, Clariane confirms having held an information meeting with members of the CSEC, on a possible sale of its home hospitalization and home nursing services activity (HAD/ SSIAD) in France.
LDC posts for its 2023-24 financial year (ended at the end of February) a turnover of nearly 6.2 billion euros, up 6% (+3% constant scope and exchange rates) for volumes sold almost -stable (+0.3% as published and -0.2% organically).
Rallye, the former parent company of Casino, announced on Friday an annual loss of nearly 8.5 billion euros, notably as a result of the depreciation in the value of the distributor’s shares.
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