(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange recorded a very slight increase on Wednesday morning, interrupting its sudden downward streak that began ten days ago, while bond yields tend to stabilize below their recent highs. The CAC40 index recovered slightly by 0.2% to 7085 points.
A scent of correction has been floating for several days on the world stock markets, many of which have hit major technical supports in a general climate dominated by risk aversion.
Investor morale had deteriorated significantly last week with the prospect of high rates for a prolonged period, a scenario reinforced by the Fed’s latest statements.
The situation got even worse yesterday, since the Parisian market experienced a fourth consecutive session of decline which led it to cross downwards the threshold considered decisive of 7050 points.
While the CAC40 went so far as to post an annual increase of 17% in April, its gain since the start of the year has declined severely to only reach 9% today.
On the European bond market, yields are stabilizing after having risen sharply in recent weeks, with the German ten-year remaining stable at around 2.80%, the highest since 2011.
In the United States, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond briefly exceeded yesterday the level considered crucial of 4.56%, not seen since 2007, before returning to around 4.55%.
‘A regime change in real rates is thus outlined, favorable to bond holders, but unfavorable to the riskiest assets, including stocks, which are seeing their appeal diminished’, underlines Alexis Bienvenu, manager at La Financière de l’. Chessboard.
The gloomy climate was exacerbated yesterday by indicators reinforcing the scenario of an upcoming recession in the United States, also fueled by the threat of a possible ‘shutdown’ at the end of the week.
According to a recent survey by Goldman Sachs, 77% of investors now expect a recession across the Atlantic over the next two years, with 23% of them thinking it will occur in 2023 and 53% in 2024. .
When it comes to currencies, the dollar still benefits from the advantage of a yield on Treasuries that is still much higher than that of European paper, which is pushing the euro down towards 1.0565 against the greenback.
As for the economic situation, the day promises to be rather calm with the publication of the economic survey among French households and the expected announcement of orders for durable goods this afternoon in the United States.
Household confidence in the economic situation in France is deteriorating, given the INSEE synthetic indicator which lost two points to 83 in September, well below its long-term average (100 between January 1987 and December 2022).
Investors will also monitor the release of American oil stocks, while fears of a slowdown in global growth have so far had little influence on crude prices.
American light crude is currently climbing by more than 1% to almost $91.4 per barrel, the highest since October 2022. As for Brent, it is also increasing by 1% to $94.9, a level not seen for almost a year.
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