(CercleFinance.com) – The ‘roller coaster’ continues but it is the buyers who regain control a little 45 minutes from the close in Europe: the CAC40, which initially lost 0.9%, was back in the green this afternoon before plunge back to the lows of the day (-1% at 5.780) around 4 p.m. then recover towards 5.810 (-0.5%).
The Euro-Stoxx50 lost only 0.6% (Frankfurt fell by -0.8% and Amsterdam by -1%).
This is close to the Wall Street scores with -0.7% for the S&P500 and -1% for the Nasdaq… the Dow Jones grabs +0.4%.
“The macroeconomic outlook continues to hurt market sentiment,” says London investment bank Liberum.
The New York FED has just published its anticipated consumer spending index: it shows a sharp drop from -1.8 to 6.00, which foreshadows a slowdown in growth.
The most negative point for Wall Street remains the new US restrictions on technology exports to China decreed last Friday.
‘This is another crack in an increasingly fractured relationship with the United States, which we believe will be a major headwind for China’s stock markets in the long run,’ the analyst firm warns. .
The Tokyo stock market fell by -2.64% this morning, Hong Kong by -2% and Seoul by -3%.
Rates continue to tighten everywhere but our OATs are under more pressure than other sovereign debts at 2.905% (the Bunds relax by -2 Pts towards 2.305%).
T-Bonds deteriorated by +3pts to 3.915% but the yield tested 4% before the Fed’s ‘stat’.
The IMF has just revised France’s growth forecast downwards to +0.7%, while our 2023 draft budget is based on an assumption of a +1.5% increase in GDP.
The IMF is also revising US growth from +2.3% to +1.6% in 2023, that of China to only +3.2% in 2022 and +4.4% in 2023 (watch out for the impact of new US sanctions!).
The IMF, on the other hand, is revising its global inflation estimates upwards to +8.8% in 2022 (compared to 4.7% in 2021) and one of its economists (Gourinchas) describes the outlook for the end of 2022 as very ‘painful’ , with growth reduced from +7% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022.
At least a third of developed countries will suffer a recession this year.
The Euro reverses the steam and returns to the $0.9700 mark, towards $0.9725.
On the securities front, Sanofi reports positive last-minute results from a phase III trial seeking to evaluate its Dupixent in children aged one to 11 years with active eosinophilic esophagitis.
Vinci announces that it has participated in H2 Mobility’s latest financing round for 10 million euros alongside the Clean H2 Infra Fund, the world’s leading fund for low-carbon hydrogen, of which it is a key investor.
Getlink announces that Le Shuttle, its shuttle service for passenger vehicles, transported 203,491 vehicles under the Channel in September, an increase of 50% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Oddo maintains its ‘outperformance’ rating for Carrefour stock, with an unchanged target price of 20 euros. While the distributor’s quarterly results will be presented on October 26, Oddo is already anticipating a 16% increase in sales for the third quarter.
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