(CercleFinance.com) – From confident this morning, the markets swung into the most unbridled euphoria with spreads of +3% to +3.5% in Europe (+3.6% for the CAC40 which flirted with the 6,830 Pts).
The rise has moderated a little (+2.8% for the CAC at 6,775) since the opening of Wall Street with the Dow Jones and the S&P500 only gaining +0.5%.
Why such a differential (about 2.5% on both sides of the Atlantic?
Anthony Blinken the Deputy Director of US National Security has just declared that he does not believe in ‘a serious will of the Russians to negotiate’: it is the same A.Blinken who had announced the imminent invasion of Ukraine towards on February 15 when Europe thought that Putin would not attack its neighbor.
But the markets only want to retain the confirmation of the joint will displayed in Istanbul to move forward in the negotiations and to bring closer the points of view between Ukraine and Russia.
Moscow announces a ‘radical’ drop in its military activities to promote the organization of a Putin/Zelensky meeting (the latter renounces joining NATO and wishes to have Ukraine adopt a status of neutrality, under international protection ).
The CAC40 remains above its level before the invasion of Ukraine… but the purchase volumes (3 billionE after 8 hours of trading) are significantly lower than those observed on the decline with differences comparable (3%).
But above all, the bond carnage continues with OATs whose yield soared to around 1.15% before moderating towards 1.07%, ie +40pts compared to pre-conflict levels.
The Bunds reached as high as 0.74% before settling towards 0.68%, the 2-year yield has just turned positive for the first time since 2014.
Italian BTPs rocketed to 2.25% before returning to 2.15%.
On the other side of the Atlantic, ‘The yield on five-year US Treasury bonds exceeded that of 10 years (2.45%)’, indeed underlines Liberum, specifying nevertheless that ‘the difference between the yields of two and 10 years ( most commonly used deviation) remained positive’.
In terms of statistics, operators took note of the results of the INSEE business survey of French households. The confidence of French households fell sharply in March, given the synthetic indicator of INSEE which lost six points to settle at 91 and is thus well below its long-term average (100).
The ‘GFK’ index in Germany falls back below 115, the lowest since June 2021.
In the United States, the Conference Board’s American consumer confidence index improved a little in March: it rose to 107.2, compared to 105.7 in February and while Jefferies expected it to be around 106 for the month that is ending.
This slight month-on-month increase is misleading, however, as the February index was revised down sharply from an initial estimate of 110.5.
The Russian-Ukrainian relaxation causes a strong consolidation of oil: gone up towards 113.7$ this morning, the ‘Brent’ falls down towards 106.5$ in London against 113.5$ this morning.
But Vladimir Putin reaffirmed that the gas should be paid for in Rubles within 48 hours and that ‘channels’ will be set up to allow buyers to obtain Russian currency.
The Europeans refuse this solution and denounce a ‘break’ in the terms of the historical contracts.
In the news of stocks in Paris, the auto sector is soaring with Renault +10.5%, Plastic Omnium +12%, Valéo +15% and Faurecia +16%.
Bank stocks are surfing on soaring rates with Sté Générale +7.5%, BNP-Paribas +6%, Crédit Agricole +5%…
Conversely, Thalès relapsed by -2%, Sanofi (-2.8%) indicated that it was revising upwards the turnover at cruising speed of its flagship immunology drug Dupixent (dupilumab), thus bringing it to more of 13 billion euros.
Plastic Omnium (+11 to +12%) announces that it has entered into exclusive negotiations with Actia Group with a view to acquiring its Actia Power division, and its participation in a new financing round by Verkor, with an investment of 20 million euros. euros.
Quadient unveiled Monday evening a net income group share more than doubled to 88 million euros for 2021, or 2.17 euros per share, and announced a dividend of 0.55 euros per share, up 10% .
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