(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange (-0.3%) reduced its losses a little but it was still a disappointing performance as the CAC40 posted up +1.3% shortly after the opening, beyond 6,160 Pts points, continuing the momentum observed at the end of the week (the Parisian index had gained 3.2% on Friday, like the New York indices which climbed from 2.7% to 3.3% ).
The CAC40 reached its low for the day (-0.6% to 6.030) shortly after the reopening of Wall Street on an undecided note.
Nothing too serious since the initial losses (the Dow Jones crumbled by -0.2%, the S&P500 by -0.3% and the Nasdaq by -0.6%) were quickly made up for and the indices are now progressing by +0.2% on average.
The European markets are therefore lagging behind on Wall Street for 7 sessions: the Euro-Stoxx50 (stable on Monday) had gained around 2% last week against +6% for the S&P500.
The bond compartment consolidated on Monday with +10Pts on our OATs at 2.075% and +9Pts on Bunds (at 1.535%) but in other circumstances, we are told that it was a good sign, it signals the return of the risk appetite.
If the yield of ten-year Treasuries tightens by +4Pts towards 3.162%, it does not invalidate its downward movement towards the psychological threshold for one week.
The markets nevertheless remain caught between fear of inflation and risk of recession, with central bankers, in the role of balancing arbiters, adjusting the delicate rate lever. Against this backdrop, one trader feels that the urgency for aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed is receding.
The scenario of a recession implies another 10% decline for European equity markets, but our base scenario excludes any downside potential over the coming months, ‘reassures one at BofA.
In terms of figures, investors discovered durable goods orders in the US: they rose by 0.7% in the United States last month, according to the Commerce Department, an increase significantly above the market consensus (after +0, 4% in April).
Excluding the transport sector, whose variations are usually considered erratic, orders for American durable goods also increased by 0.7% in May, a stronger increase than that expected by economists.
We will learn, on Wednesday, of the third estimate of the American GDP of the first quarter, which could make it possible to know more about the imminence of a recession in the United States.
The week will also be punctuated by the results of the monthly surveys of purchasing managers (PMI) on service activity in the manufacturing sector.
The tightening of monetary policies by central banks – which aims to combat record inflation – will also remain a major point of attention, given the risks that this tightening poses to economic growth.
The European Central Bank today opens its annual forum in Sintra, in the south of Portugal, which will be marked this evening by a much-awaited speech by its president, Christine Lagarde.
However, volatility could remain high during this transition period marked by low visibility, a phenomenon that leads strategists to recommend that investors maintain a good diversification of their portfolio in order to be able to face all possible scenarios.
In the news of French companies, Transgene action is boosted (+6%) Monday on the Paris Stock Exchange by the announcement of positive results of clinical trials concerning its treatment of solid tumors, such as melanoma.
Voltalia announces the development of a new photovoltaic complex, with a potential capacity of more than 1.5 gigawatts in the State of Minas Gerais, in the south-east of the country.
Finally, Valneva announces that the European Commission on Friday granted a marketing authorization (MA) in Europe for its inactivated whole virus vaccine against Covid-19 for use as a primary vaccination in adults aged 18 to 50.
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