CAC40: the (mediocre) US CPI (+0.3%) turns out to be a non-event


(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange (+0.1%) has lost a dozen points since the publication of consumer price figures, slightly above the consensus: the most closely monitored component, the Core CPI, comes out at +0.3% (this is in line with expectations but inflation stands at +3.9% annualized against 3.8% expected), overall rate stands at +0.3% (+0.2% anticipated ) and +3.4% annualized (compared to 3.2% expected).
The yield on the US T-Bond scrapes a fraction to 4.05% compared to 4.02% on Wednesday evening.
Unemployment benefit requests are almost stable, down -1,000 weekly, which is equivalent to the margin of uncertainty.
US indices are expected to be stable to slightly down.
The ‘CPI’ does not emerge as a ‘game changer’ and the European indices continue to stagnate within the same range of 1% amplitude since January 3.
Wall Street also risks stalling in contact with the absolute highs seen yesterday evening at the end of a positive session of +0.5%… a slight decline is emerging at the opening.

The other hoped-for catalyst could come from companies, with the fourth quarter results season which will begin tomorrow with the publications of the major American banks, JPMorgan in the lead.

According to FactSet, profits of S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased 1.3% over the last three months of the year, marking a second consecutive quarter of earnings growth.

But investors will be especially attentive to their prospects for 2024, knowing that the companies which have already revealed their accounts have been rather cautious in terms of their forecasts.

The benchmark bond yields are little changed after the American statistics, the German Bund and our OATs increase marginally by +1Pt and +1.5Pt to 2.199% and 2.7350 respectively.

The dollar stabilizes against the euro around 1.0965, Gold is also unchanged at $2.033/Oz.

After its bout of weakness the day before, linked to the announcement of a modest weekly increase in crude oil stocks in the United States last week, the oil market is starting to rise again.

Brent gained 2% to $78.4 per barrel while American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) gained 1.7% to $72.5.

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