(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange begins the week with a modest gain of 0.18%, to 7,246 points, notably driven by Stellantis (+2.3%), TotalEnergies (+1.9%) and Publicis (+1.6%).
Remember that the performances of recent weeks have enabled the Parisian index to gain some 4% in one month and record a gain of close to 12% since the start of the year.
However, ‘we consider the bullish configuration of the moment fragile’, consider the analysts at Kiplink Finance, pointing out the ‘febrileness’ of the CAC.
‘In the short term, the Parisian index is faced with a challenge area, that of stabilizing sustainably at 7,200 points to continue its positive streak,’ estimates the brokerage firm.
The Thanksgiving period, which will see the American markets close their doors on Thursday and only open for a shortened session on Friday, also seems not conducive to risk-taking.
Investors should avoid taking new positions, volumes are expected to be low and few elements appear likely to make the markets react.
Several indicators will also liven up the week, notably with the PMI index figures in the euro zone on Thursday, which should confirm the contraction in activity on the Old Continent.
In the United States, the index of leading indicators, supposed to foreshadow the evolution of economic activity in the United States, continued to decline in October, the Conference Board announced on Monday, which said it saw the prospect of a recession in the short term.
The ConfBoard expects that high inflation, rising interest rates and shrinking consumer spending will push the US economy into a ‘short’ recession.
According to the professional organization, the GDP of the United States should only grow by 0.8% in 2024.
It remains to be seen whether the recent upward trend has prepared the ground for the famous end-of-year ‘rally’, or whether the stock markets are on the contrary ripe for a new episode of consolidation.
Some analysts say it is far from certain that markets will have a very positive end to the year, with current valuations making them vulnerable to bad news.
‘Valuations are probably the tightest we have seen this year, with rates this high,’ warn strategists at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
On the bond compartment, the yield on ten-year Treasuries tends slightly by +2.5 points beyond 4.468% (despite the decline in the ‘Conf’Board’ indicator), but loses almost 50 basis points on one month, while the probability of a new rate hike by the Fed between now and the end of the year is now estimated at zero.
The differences observed in Europe are insignificant with +1.5Pt of base on our OATs and on Bunds, at 3.17% and 2.61% respectively.
In this context, the euro continues its rise against the dollar (+0.3%), near 1.093, establishing a new high since the end of August.
On the energy side, oil prices are trying to recover after four consecutive weeks of decline, with Brent gaining 2.6% around $82.7 per barrel.
In French company news, Bouygues announced on Monday that it had obtained approval from the AMF for its public buyout offer followed by a compulsory buyout on Colas, an operation it had initially formalized in September.
Accenture was chosen by the Accor group to support its content production capacity and establish consistency in the local and global marketing communications of its hotel brands.
Vinci announces that Lima Expresa (VINCI Highways/VINCI Concessions), concessionaire of the expressways of Lima (capital of Peru), has deployed the first automatic road accident detection system with integration of AI in the country.
Finally, Soitec lost more than 3% in Paris while this morning, Stifel indicated maintaining its ‘buy’ rating on the stock with a price target lowered from 200 to 190 euros, due to the specialist’s downwardly revised outlook. semiconductors.
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