The update from officials at three state agencies and Governor Gavin Newsom’s office comes in response to a series of challenges related to the ambitious transition away from fossil fuels, including power outages during a summer heat wave in 2020.
California has some of the most aggressive climate change policies in place, including a goal to produce all of its electricity from carbon-free sources by 2045.
In an online briefing with reporters, officials forecast a deficit of 1,700 megawatts this year, a figure that could rise to 5,000 MW if the grid is strained by multiple challenges that reduce available power. while driving demand skyrocketing, state officials said in an online briefing with reporters.
One megawatt is roughly the amount of electricity needed to power 750 California homes.
In 2025, the state will still have a capacity shortfall of about 1,800 MW, according to officials from the California Energy Commission, the Public Utilities Commission, the California Independent System Operator and Mr. Newsom’s office. They also forecast annual electricity rate increases of 4-9% by 2025.
Power planning in California has been challenged by devastating wildfires that cut transmission lines and by extreme heat and drought events that hampered hydroelectric power supplies. Officials said traditional forecasts of electricity demand do not take into account these extreme events caused by climate change.
At the same time, many solar farm and energy storage projects that the state has commissioned over the past two years have been delayed due to supply chain issues during the pandemic and a recent federal trade investigation into solar energy imports.
“We are now in a situation where we have to take into account a new landscape in terms of the challenge of bringing the projects we need online,” said Karen Douglas, adviser to Newsom, during the briefing. .
The announcement, which came a week after Mr Newsom said the state was open to the idea of keeping its last nuclear power station operating to preserve reliability, appeared to lay the groundwork for an effort to maintain active older installations.
“We need to make sure we have enough new resources in place and operational before we let go of some of these retirements,” said Mark Rothleder, chief operating officer of California network operator ISO. “Otherwise, we potentially put ourselves at risk of having insufficient capacity.” (Reporting by Nichola Groom; Writing by Leslie Adler and David Gregorio)