Fears of an energy shortage in Switzerland this winter have diminished, but the federal government’s savings campaign is continuing. The federal government is in a dilemma: it doesn’t want to dramatize, but because of a possible emergency it doesn’t want to undermine its austerity appeals either.
The federal government’s energy-saving campaign has lost some of its persuasiveness.
Economics Minister Guy Parmelin announced something reassuring for Switzerland on Wednesday: The risk of a gas shortage this winter is relatively low. The keywords mentioned: well-stocked gas storage facilities in Europe, mild weather so far and efforts by the industry to save because of the high prices. Things are not looking bad for electricity either, where the probability of a shortage was lower from the start than for gas. This is how the recently published scenario calculations interpret the national grid company Swissgrid for the electricity winter 2022/23 as half the all-clear.
The picture of a certain easing can also be seen on the energy exchanges (see chart). Prices have come down significantly since the peaks in late summer, but they are still significantly higher than in 2021. A message that has often been heard in recent weeks can be summed up as follows: If the circumstances do not deteriorate massively, Switzerland should do without this winter to make ends meet due to shortages, but things could get more difficult in the winter of 2023/24. The main “circumstances” include, above all, the behavior of Russia, the winter temperatures, the rehabilitation path of currently decommissioned French nuclear power plants and the degree of reliability of other important power plants at home and abroad.
Study caused irritation
The trend towards some reassurance is good news. The downside: it weakens them Federal energy saving campaign for the current winter. According to reports, the recent publication of the aforementioned Swissgrid study on the electricity supply caused some irritation among the federal government’s crisis planners, as the savings campaign could lose some of its persuasiveness as a result. One “problem” was that the analysis was published without accompanying interpretations and reading aids.
Some criticism of the content was also heard from outside the federal government – for example that the stress scenarios in the study were not strict enough. There are unquestionably well-imagined combinations of dire circumstances, such as import blockades, power plant outages, and winter cold, that could lead to shortages this winter—although the probability of such shortages is currently low.
The federal government’s austerity campaign faces a dilemma: in the interest of its credibility, the federal government does not want to dramatize, but it also wants to make provisions for emergencies and keep the probability of such an emergency as low as possible – to which the austerity appeals should also contribute. Communication with private households appears to be particularly difficult here. For these, the planning of crisis scenarios is further away than at least for larger companies. In addition, energy-intensive companies have a considerable interest in saving because of the sharp rise in prices, while private households often feel the price hikes in electricity and gas less directly in their wallets. In addition, from the point of view of private households, their own potential savings contribution appears marginal.
The fact that private households, in contrast to companies, belonged to the “protected” area from the outset in the federal emergency plan for a gas rationing scenario was also of little help for the austerity campaign. This may seem popular, although production cuts at companies could also end up hitting households hard. However, the message that even in the worst case scenario there is no need to fear rationing should not have contributed to households’ awareness of the crisis. At present, they only have the prospect of receiving an upper temperature limit for interior spaces in the scenario with bans/restrictions. That doesn’t sound dramatic. The fact that the Federal Council increased the upper limit from the originally planned 19 degrees to 20 degrees this week is another sign of relaxation.
“Don’t take it for a fool”
Private households are of great importance as energy consumers. In 2021, households accounted for over 40 percent of total gas consumption in Switzerland, and around 35 percent for electricity. Industry, services and transport are the other major consumer groups (see chart).
How should the federal government deal with the austerity campaign in view of the signs of relaxation? “The worst thing is to take people for fools,” says communications consultant Sacha Wigdorovits. He refers to the lessons of the corona pandemic and emphasizes: “One should not make any firm forecasts about a crisis, because it always turns out differently than expected.” For the present case, he recommends “objectively informing about the scenarios”. Compared to conveying a black and white picture, the communication effort is greater in the current situation. “It has to be accepted that some citizens may no longer take the crisis seriously. But that’s better than dramatizing and endangering the credibility of political institutions later.”
Another communications expert interviewed expressed general doubts about the effectiveness of austerity appeals by the government. With the latest signs of a certain relaxation for the current winter, the campaign is also losing momentum. Experiences abroad show at least that austerity appeals can have a certain effect. In one respect, Switzerland has relatively good prerequisites for austerity appeals: the population’s trust in the government is greater than in many other countries. In return, however, another important prerequisite is likely to be lacking: a broad awareness of the crisis. Whether the savings campaign has had an effect on private households so far cannot be said conclusively at the moment. In the case of companies, the price jumps from this year in particular are likely to have curbed consumption.
The advertising agency called in by the federal government for the savings campaign did not want to comment directly on Thursday; she referred to the client. The current situation is “rather positive,” said the Federal Office of Energy: “But there is no complete all-clear.” The Federal Office indicated that some unplanned things could happen this winter. Lower consumption makes the whole system in Switzerland more stable: “That’s why households and the economy should continue to save electricity and make their contribution to greater stability.”