Can BTC Price Hold Gains?

The course correction appears to have been overcome. After the successful retest of the cross support from Golden Pocket and the moving average of the last 200 trading days (EMA200), the bulls took heart and heaved the Bitcoin price north by a remarkable 10 percentage points in the middle of the week. The uncertainties surrounding Binance and the stablecoin BUSD have been pushed into the background for the time being. According to Binance itself, it only expects a fine to get rid of the ongoing investigations by various US authorities. Aside from increased bitcoin (BTC) short liquidations of around $80 million in the last 24 hours of trading, positive developments in the Far East could have fueled the bullish price jump.

Then according to Hong Kong’s small investors can officially trade in cryptocurrencies again from June 1, 2023 – a possible trading place for Chinese investors who are prohibited from crypto trading in the People’s Republic. In addition, the ongoing exchange of stablecoins such as USDC and BUSD for the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) indicates that large investors in particular have recently reduced their risk exposure in view of a possible SEC lawsuit against the issuer of BUSD, Paxos. Despite the positive mood on the market, investors should currently keep an eye on the US dollar index DXY. Rising US producer prices are a first warning shot.

Course analysis based on the pair of values BTC/USD on Coinbase
  • Bullish price targets: $24,925, 25,214/25,338 USD, USD 26,500, USD 27,682/USD 28,089, 28,740/29,232 USD, USD 30,000, USD 30,656, USD 31,754, 32.403/32.938 USD

Bitcoin: Bullish price targets for the coming trading weeks

  • The current Bitcoin price jump may have surprised many market participants. The movement was hardly to be expected in view of the latest news and the rising inflation rate in the USA. From a purely technical point of view, however, the Bitcoin price has bullishly confirmed its breakout above the red downtrend line in the last seven trading days and is turning north almost exactly to the dollar at the EMA200 (blue). Starting from the strong purple support zone, the bulls were able to push bitcoin price back above the previously broken green support area. As a result, late in the evening Bitcoin surged to the bottom of the resist zone at $24,925.
  • Since then, the Bitcoin price has been consolidating back to the red breakout area of ​​the historical highs from January 2023. In the short term, the bulls must now do everything possible to ensure that Bitcoin does not sustainably correct below the $ 23,824 mark. At the latest, if the USD 23,290 were broken, Bitcoin would be caught again in the range of the previous weeks. The moving average lines EMA50 and EMA200 in the weekly chart also run in the area of ​​yesterday’s daily high and represent a massive resistance mark for the time being.

The bullish breakout is taking shape

  • However, if the buyer side succeeds in dynamically breaking through the blue resistance zone, there should then be a rapid jump in price towards USD 26,500. Above the August high are many stop loss orders of highly leveraged short bets. These should act as rocket fuel for the BTC course.
  • If the parent move’s golden pocket is smashed at $26,500, there would be immediate room into the green zone around $28,000. This would also put Bitcoin within reach of closing the CME price gap. The orange area therefore represents an attractive start-up target for the buyer side. In the short term, the USD 29232 mark is to be regarded as the maximum price target. Only when Bitcoin sustainably overcomes this mark will the psychological mark of $30,000 come into focus.
  • Bearish Targets: 24,269 $23,824, $23,290, 22.610/22.310 $21,927, $21,365, $20,897, 20,666 USD, USD 20,370, USD 19,703, 19.363/19.109 USD

Bearish bitcoin price targets

  • On the other hand, if the bears succeed in a timely counterattack and Bitcoin falls back below the red support area, a sell-off of up to US$ 23,290 can be expected. If this price mark is also abandoned, the green support zone will come back into the eyes of investors. At $22,610, the Golden Pocket is the first important price target for the seller side. Bitcoin would then be caught again in the range of the last few weeks. If the BTC price then folds back below $ 22,310, that would be interpreted bearishly. Then an extension of the consolidation up to the super trend in the daily chart at 21,927 US dollars is to be planned.
  • If Bitcoin does not turn north here either, a retest of the low from the beginning of the week at US$ 21,366 is increasingly conceivable. A break of the purple support zone would cloud the chart further and extend the corrective move to $20,666. The red overriding downward trend line can currently also be found in the turquoise zone. The bulls should not give up this area if possible. A fall below the Jan. 18 low of $20,370 would trigger further sell-off.

There is a risk of falling back below $20,000

  • However, if the bears stay in control and Bitcoin slips below the turquoise zone by the end of the day, the next price target is $19,703. However, this support should only last for a short time. A correction extension to the yellow support area between US$19,363 and US$19,109 is more likely. With the golden pocket of the correction movement starting from the high for the year in combination with a so-called high volume node, the bulls are likely to start a countermovement again. This zone therefore represents the next relevant price target for the bears.
  • The maximum bearish target price remains unchanged around the January 12 breakout level. With the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the entire route from the historical low to the annual high and the breakout level of the price rally, this zone represents the optimal area for new higher-level long entries. However, the BTC price should quickly return after dipping into the pink zone rally north above $18,366. Otherwise, the bullish market momentum threatens to topple. This would most likely result in a relapse to the low of 2022 or even below.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.94.

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