Before the pandemic, "Dr. Google" was a sought-after guide worldwide. Millions of people type their symptoms into the search slot whenever and whenever they feel unwell. The focus of the entries vary depending on the region or season. This search data can be used in the current situation to see where coronavirus infections are common, says the American data expert Seth Stephens-Davidowitz in a contribution for the "New York Times".
Do Google searches provide clues about upcoming outbreaks?
The idea: If searches for one or more coronavirus symptoms such as fever, dry cough or diarrhea skyrocket at a certain point on the planet in a short period of time, this may provide an indication of an accumulation of Covid-19 cases in the Area. According to the data expert, this could provide information, particularly in countries and regions where the virus is not tested very often, when and where new outbreaks of infection arise or are already in full swing.
Data scientist Stephens-Davidowitz explains his theory using the example of loss of smell, also a possible symptom of an illness. In Italy and many US states, for example, the number of searches for "I don't smell anything" or "loss of smell" in the local language would have increased significantly in recent times. "Because these searches in the parts of the world correlate so well with the incidence of disease rates with adequate testing, we could use them to find places where many positive cases have probably gone unnoticed," he writes.
Searches for loss of smell
in Italy (top) and Germany (bottom)
In 2009, the model failed in swine flu
In this way, one could even identify new symptoms, Stephens-Davidowitz continues. In 2009, scientists had already successfully experimented with flu-related Google search results. Back then, a search term was used to develop a model that was designed to help detect epidemics before official data were available.
In the same year, the model failed, however, according to the data expert, in the swine flu outbreak in North America. The problem, according to Stephens-Davidowitz: The topic would have been so present in the news that many people did not look for it because they felt symptoms – but out of curiosity or concern.
Source: "New York Times", Google Trends
This article was originally published on stern.de.