The future pricing of CO2 emissions in France and Europe would threaten the survival of certain industrial sectors, in particular related to metals (steel) and minerals (cement, glass), which must therefore invest quickly to reduce their emissions, analyzes a study Deloitte and La Fabrique de l’Industrie.
“Highly emitting sectors will be significantly affected by CO2 pricing”, (…) their survival is even sometimes threatened”, warn the two former French bosses Louis Gallois and Pierre André de Chalendar, co-presidents of the Fabrique de Chalendar think tank. Industry, in this study made public on Thursday.
The 75-page document calculates, sector by sector, the impact of carbon pricing, envisaged from 2030 when the free allocation of European carbon emission quotas to manufacturers will decrease, or even disappear in 2035, on their activity, if they continue to emit as much CO2.
In total, with an average cost of carbon estimated at 250 euros per tonne by 2030, the overall additional cost for emitting companies in France would amount to 58 billion euros, or approximately 2.5 points of GDP. This risks creating new relocations (“carbon leakage”) in certain industries which would not be able to transfer these additional costs to their customers.
“The study takes place over the long term, all sectors will have to be made responsible for their carbon emissions, either they will pay a tax, or they invest now to transform their mode of production and avoid paying the tax”, underlines Olivier Sautel, partner at Deloitte and co-author of the study.
The result of this work is particularly alarming for the sectors that emit the most CO2: steel, aluminium, metals, as well as the entire cement sector.
“The additional costs generated by a carbon price of 250 euros per tonne of CO2 would exceed 100% of the gross operating surplus of these sectors” (107% for cement manufacturers) if they do not make investment efforts fast, warn the authors. Chemistry is also very concerned, with an additional cost of 56% of the gross operating surplus.
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Even less emitting sectors must be prepared for additional costs, estimated at 12% of the textile and clothing margin, by the report.
“The price of carbon has long been very low, around 20 euros per tonne. With the post-Covid recovery, the price has increased by 180% in 1 year, to 96 euros per tonne, and has fallen since the war in Ukraine. around 78 euros per ton, but it should continue to increase as the lowering of the authorized emission ceilings”, underlines for AFP Caroline Minni, of the Fabrique de l’industrie, co-author of the study.
According to her, today’s industry “will have to evolve”: “it is important to invest today to prevent the aluminum sector, for example, which has already undergone several relocations, from leaving Europe “adds Ms. Minni.