(CercleFinance.com) – The Carrefour title suffered some profit taking today (-3.4%) after a gain of nearly 13% over the last four sessions. The value has gained around 11% since January 1, 2022 and 20% over 1 month.
Stifel maintains its purchase note on the Carrefour share with a target price of 20 euros.
Carrefour shares rose sharply last week after Bloomberg spoke of a further attempt at a rapprochement by Auchan. In October, a first negotiation between the two entities did not bear fruit.
“We think Carrefour’s main shareholders and group management would likely support a decent-priced cash offer,” Stifel notes.
As a reminder, just a year ago, the French authorities put a halt to negotiations with the Canadian Couche-Tard, believing that an agreement could undermine the country’s food security, particularly in a context of health crisis.
In view of these arguments, it now seems unlikely that the French authorities are hostile to a merger between two national players in the mass distribution – provided they are reassured on the social side.
At the time, negotiations with Couche-Tard had started at a price of 20 euros / share for a 100% cash offer. Stifel understands that negotiations with Auchan in October had failed because the agreement was not 100% in cash. The price mentioned was then 21.5 euros, reports the analyst.
With less than 100 days of the presidential election, this issue could potentially become part of the news of the campaign. It is also not impossible that other players will come forward in order to get closer to the French distribution giant.
Invest Securities analysts are wondering this morning if Carrefour is condemned to ‘marry more or less fair’ with Auchan?
They believe that the eventuality becomes more likely, even if there are still many obstacles to preempt a quick outcome.
‘With the difficulty of correctly probing the eventuality of this merger, beyond a minimum of 1/3 of chances to integrate this scenario into a weighted OC which leads to a price of 19E, barely higher than the last price of action, we prefer to go for the status quo on our recommendation (neutral) and OC ‘.
‘From predatory, Carrefour has turned into clearly identified prey since the attempt by Canadian Couche-tard a year ago. But what can motivate Auchan today to take over Carrefour, when the corporate culture of the northerner, like that of Carrefour, has only rarely given favor to major external growth operations? ? ‘says Invest Securities.
‘If the succession of the founder of Auchan is posed, which can indeed militate in favor of an evolutionary strategy, we have difficulty believing that Auchan is ready to assume such a risk without having an imperative necessity’ adds the analysis office.
Copyright © 2022 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.
Did you like this article ? Share it with your friends with the buttons below.
