China and Russia like to present themselves as close partners. The Asian superpower has so far refused to condemn Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. At the G20 summit, however, Head of State Xi Jinping spoke differently. Does friendship crack?
Nobody expected this result. Moscow was heavily criticized at the G20 summit in Bali in mid-November. In the final declaration, the participating countries condemned Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. And they also said that no nuclear weapons should be used. The Russian President Vladimir Putin had repeatedly threatened to do so.
China also signed the final declaration critical of Russia. However, it contained the wording that “most members” condemn the war in Ukraine. A choice of words that gives China some freedom. Political scientist Thomas Jäger comments on ntv that this final declaration was “remarkable”: “The pressure is increasing on President Putin to end this war in some way.”
At the G20 meeting, Russia was relatively isolated. Putin himself did not come, he only sent his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. He was avoided by the other participants. Putin’s alleged friend, China’s head of state Xi Jinping, on the other hand, has sought proximity to other heads of state and government. He spoke to US President Joe Biden for three hours, and there were also meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Putin hurts China’s economic growth
After the summit, many speculated that the close friendship between Russia and China had cracked. “China really only has one interest, and that is its own economic growth. And that’s when President Xi realized that Putin was no longer helping him, but harming him,” is the assessment of ntv reporter Carsten Mierke.
The slight change of course had already been indicated during Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to China at the beginning of November. China’s rulers distanced themselves somewhat from Russia by condemning threats to use nuclear weapons.
Unlimited Friendship?
That the friendship between Putin and Xi is now on the brink, wants Finn Mayer-Kuckuk don’t sign like that. The China expert is the editor-in-chief of the digital medium China.Table. Beijing’s position has not fundamentally changed, but only in the details, says Mayer-Kuckuk in the ntv podcast “Learned something again”: “At the G20 summit in Bali, he is more likely to side with the other state leaders than as an outsider to be on the side of this crazy guy with his war. And so now there’s this little realignment, signing these documents, but no real stepping away from Russia.
But is the friendship between Xi and Putin really that limitless? Just three weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the two had vowed to do just that. The two met at the beginning of February for the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The statement at the end read that the friendship between Russia and China has “no borders”.
And in general, the two autocrats are very fond of each other. They exchange birthday wishes and have met in person about 40 times met. Xi Jinping calls Vladimir Putin his “best friend”. China’s head of state is one of the last allies left by the Russian president. To date, China has not officially criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China benefits from cheap energy
Trade relations between Moscow and Beijing have become even closer as a result of the Ukraine war. Because of Western sanctions, Russia has turned its economy to the East. China benefits from this and gets oil, gas and coal cheaply from Moscow. Beijing also does not support the EU countries’ oil price cap against Russia.
Russia, however, doesn’t really get much in return. Outwardly, China does not support the sanctions. Exports to Moscow have nevertheless collapsed, by 38 percent by April. Beijing has not yet helped Russia with weapons. “They delivered microchips, but they were so bad that only half of them worked and the Russians now have huge problems sorting them out,” reports Mayer-Kuckuk.
China, on the other hand, has become the most important export country for Russia’s energy. According to government figures, Moscow delivered 10 percent more energy to China this year. 15 percent of all Chinese oil imports come from Russia – only Saudi Arabia supplies more.
“Russia will be the vassal of China”
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However, the partnership is not one-sided. China’s goal is to break away from the West. Russia could contribute to this and supply the Middle Kingdom with raw materials and energy. Oil and natural gas can no longer get rid of Moscow in Europe. China also calculates that the Ukraine war will weaken US military capabilities. And that gives Beijing a freer hand in East and Southeast Asia.
“In the end, the large, resource-rich Russia will be a loyal ally and almost something like a vassal state of China,” estimates Mayer-Kuckuk in the “Learned again” podcast. “Russia doesn’t have strong brands, it doesn’t have superior technology. It doesn’t have a lot of things that you need to be diverse on the world market. China, for its part, is economically much, much stronger and will therefore pocket Russia. And Putin is badly dependent on Xi Jinping.”
Positioning yourself against Moscow is not effective, says the China expert. At the same time, Beijing is not openly siding with Russia. After all, China also needs the EU as a strong economic partner. It exploits Moscow’s isolation within the world community.
China wants a new world order
As closely as China is tied to Russia, so much animosity exists towards the US. Xi believes communism can defeat the capitalist West. “The Chinese are primarily interested in readjusting the world order,” says Mayer-Kuckuk. A world order “in which the Americans do not dictate everything” – and with Beijing at the top.
Xi had hoped that Putin’s attack on Ukraine would cause unrest in the world and thus make it possible to reshape global governance. But this calculation does not work, says the former East Asia correspondent. The war has lasted far too long for that.
If Putin let Xi in on his plans, he said, “It’ll be over in two months and now this war will go on forever,” Mayer-Kuckuck said. “And China is not benefiting geopolitically as much as hoped.”
Ukraine not as a role model for Taiwan conflict
China is also looking closely at the Ukraine war to learn something for its own conflict with Taiwan. Beijing does not see the small island state as independent, but as a breakaway province of the People’s Republic – and wants to bring the country under its control.
Taiwan is not recognized as a sovereign state by most countries in the world. Not even from Germany and the USA – but the USA supports Taiwan in defense and supplies weapons.
When US top politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in early August, China was not very enthusiastic and sent fighter jets and warships on military maneuvers along the Taiwanese coast. So far, however, the Ukraine war has not provided a blueprint for how China can incorporate Taiwan.
China as a mediator in the Ukraine war
However, China itself could play a role in the Ukraine war, namely as a peace broker. Some see ruler Xi in this role. Including France. Head of state Emmanuel Macron wants to do this during a visit to China early next year.
The EU also hopes that Xi can convince Russia to end the war. The Chinese ruler is in favor of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, but has so far not wanted to use his influence.
“The Chinese would be the only ones who could do it,” says Finn Mayer-Kuckuk in the podcast. “But even that would amount far too much to supporting America in preserving the old world order. And that’s why it doesn’t look like a mediator role at the moment.”
At the moment, China also has enough problems of its own. The government is cracking down on demonstrators across the country with all its might. Your protest has long been directed not only against the strict Corona policy, but against the communist leadership.
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