A subway worker removes a poster related to Covid-19 at the entrance of a subway station in Guangzhou, China, on December 7, 2022 (CNS/AFP/-)
A few weeks ago, “zero Covid” was the norm in China. But protests on an unprecedented scale and an economy suffocated by health restrictions have forced President Xi Jinping to do an about-face.
The leader had however made it his trademark, assuring that by doing so, Beijing had privileged “the population and human lives”.
But the tone changed dramatically on Wednesday, when health authorities announced a general easing of anti-Covid restrictions, to “be in tune with changing times”.
Changing times, but also a population that has lost patience: at the end of November, the country was shaken by a wave of angry demonstrations against health measures, some even demanding the departure of Xi Jinping.
These rallies “probably worried leaders and led them to conclude that discontent was growing dangerously,” said Jane Duckett, director of the Scottish Center for China Research at the University of Glasgow.
Still from eyewitness video released via AFPTV on 27 November 2022 of a protest against anti-Covid policies in Shanghai, China (AFP/-)
The ensuing easing of restrictions is therefore the response “to a changing situation that was starting to look like a challenge to the authority of Xi and the (Communist Party), which is why the response is so quick and strong”, also says Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London.
For the Chinese authorities, losing face is out of the question.
“The party (ruling communist, editor’s note) is now seeking to appropriate this change in public opinion, and thus to strengthen its legitimacy in the eyes of the population”, explains to AFP Dan Macklin, political analyst based in Shanghai. .
“In short, he wants to be seen as driving the new direction, rather than reacting to the wave of discontent.”
Consequence: despite rising contamination figures, the instruction now for the authorities is to display a reassuring speech about the virus.
– Sudden awakening –
Another important factor in this reversal is China’s poor economic health.
A man in a protective suit rides a scooter on a street in Shanghai’s Jing’an district on December 7, 2022 (AFP/Hector RETAMAL)
Growth and a certain standard of living for the inhabitants were two pillars of the “Chinese dream” touted by Xi Jinping.
But as the country is heading for its weakest growth in four decades this year, the awakening is proving brutal.
On Wednesday, new alarming figures were published, showing foreign trade at its lowest since the beginning of 2020.
“The economic effects of the policies in effect until then have become increasingly visible,” observes Bert Hofman of the National University of Singapore.
This economic debacle – more than the protests – happens to be the main factor that pushed China to begin its exit from “zero Covid”, estimates Allen Wu, professor at the school of medicine of Nanjing University, and former adviser for the WHO.
Health workers wait to test passengers for Covid-19 at Hongqiao railway station in Shanghai on December 6, 2022 (AFP/Hector RETAMAL)
“Traditionally, the Chinese government is always very cautious…it tends to be slow in making decisions or changing policy,” he said.
The authorities have also seen with relief that the increase in cases for four months has not led to a peak in hospitalizations.
“I think it gave the government, but also the people, confidence in (China’s) ability to deal with the virus,” Wu said.
– “Politically opportune” –
But changing policy overnight is not without danger.
People sit outside a restaurant in Shanghai’s Jing’an district on December 7, 2022 (AFP/Hector RETAMAL)
“There is certainly a risk for the party that the population will see this as a capitulation to public pressure, which could encourage the population to demonstrate more in the future”, judges Dan Macklin.
“However, I think the government is sincerely seeking to respond to the change in public opinion, and many will be grateful for that.”
For Mr. Tsang, everything will depend on whether or not the Chinese health system is overwhelmed by the foreseeable increase in cases.
“If this happens, it will have a major negative impact on the reputation of Xi and the party.”
The timing is “politically opportune”, notes Leong Hoe Nam, an infectious disease expert based in Singapore, even if winter is not necessarily the best season to ease health restrictions.
A protective suit lies on the ground near a residential area in Beijing on December 7, 2022 (AFP/Noel CELIS)
“I would not open the country now. It is clear that we are choosing the worst time” from a health point of view, he says.
The authorities “probably calculated that they could manage this change, control the discourse (around the virus) and also control the number of reported deaths”, underlines Jane Duckett.
“But this remains a risky moment for the regime.”
© 2022 AFP
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