China’s multi-day military maneuvers have exacerbated the Taiwan crisis. In the first criticisms of the maneuver, observers express concern that this is only the beginning of major tensions.
Taiwanese marines watch China’s military exercises around the island from a surveillance center.
Despite the end of China’s four-day military exercises announced for Sunday, the martial threats to the island republic of Taiwan continue. Beijing announced further exercises in the region on Monday. Chinese state television said its troops would regularly conduct maneuvers beyond the center line in the Taiwan Strait, the informal maritime border between the two sides. What China’s People’s Liberation Army has accomplished in the past few days was unprecedented in scope.
Shortly after the departure of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Chinese warships crossed the center line, then 11 missiles struck six previously announced stretches of sea around the island, some just a few kilometers from Taiwan’s coast. In the days that followed, drones invaded the airspace of small Taiwanese islands within sight of China’s coast. In all, the People’s Liberation Army deployed dozens of warships and fighter planes. A considerable number of them crossed the center line and menacingly approached the island, which the communist leadership intends to incorporate into the People’s Republic by force if necessary.
Taiwan’s and China’s military in close proximity
There was no military escalation, but the situation remains extremely tense. Taiwan’s military deployed missile defense systems and responded with a game of cat-and-mouse in the air and at sea. Our own planes and warships tried to push the Chinese away and often came very close to them.
In the first evaluation, Taiwan’s defense ministry took the enemy maneuver very seriously: “China’s People’s Liberation Army is probably simulating an attack on Taiwan,” the military leadership wrote in a press release on Sunday. Other experts see the whole thing primarily as a warning to the USA, Taiwan and the world that China could block the important chip supplier’s sea and air connections in an emergency. The six pre-announced maneuver areas indicated the possibility of an encirclement of the island.
This development was not unexpected. The communist leadership had expressly announced in advance that it would react sharply to the visit of the American politician, who is third in the US political hierarchy. Beijing saw the visit as a violation of the one-China policy, according to which there is only one China.
However, Washington stressed that it had not changed policy. It is true that the USA only recognizes the People’s Republic diplomatically and not the smaller Republic of China on Taiwan, where around 23 million people live. In 1979, however, the USA promised its protégé in the Taiwan Relations Act that it would support the defense of the island – without openly promising military intervention.
However, many observers did not expect the aggressiveness of the military exercise. Eric Chan, a researcher at the Global Taiwan Institute, a US-based think tank, said he was a bit surprised by the intensity of the maneuvers. After the verbal saber-rattling in the People’s Republic, where a well-known commentator loudly contemplated shooting down Pelosi’s plane, he assumed that party and state leader Xi Jinping would tend to take risks. “But the maneuvers go 20 to 30 percent beyond what I had imagined.”
Despite all the concerns, Eric Chan believes that Xi is not yet looking for a conflict with the United States. China’s approach is not extremely risky. For example, the People’s Liberation Army failed to create a war-like atmosphere, and all rockets hit the water. So far, the exercises have been primarily symbolic, says Chan. Beijing wants to demonstrate the ability of its People’s Liberation Army to carry out complex operations. At the same time, party leader Xi is keeping open the possibility of taking even tougher action against Taiwan.
Months of tension to be expected
Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group, which is currently in Taiwan, also sees no end to the tensions. “The exercises represent a clear escalation compared to the Taiwan crisis of 1995/96 and to all of China’s military actions in recent years,” says the think tank’s China expert. Since the crisis at that time stretched over nine months a good quarter of a century ago and included several maneuvers, it is possible that there will be further military exercises this time.
Hsiao also believes Beijing will use Pelosi’s visit to expand China’s military presence in the Taiwan Straits. “Chinese aircraft and warships are likely to cross the center line in the Taiwan Strait more frequently in the future – and not just during announced maneuvers.”
At the same time, China is already sending signals to Japan and South Korea: Some of the Chinese missiles have hit Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Then on Friday, Japan’s air force tracked two Chinese drones flying to maneuver areas between Japanese islands in the region. In addition, China is conducting live ammunition shooting exercises in the Yellow Sea, i.e. between China and South Korea, until August 15.
Many experts agree on one thing: China’s ultimate goal is the incorporation of Taiwan, either peacefully through the island’s self-abandonment or forced through war. Beijing itself has said so repeatedly. Only the time frame is puzzling. Former US national security adviser H.R. McMaster said last week that the period of maximum danger was between 2024 and 2026. Other experts place them more at the end of the 2020s or the beginning of the 2030s.