Due to an external environment that “remains uncertain and tends to become more complicated and concerning” – the only allusion to the war in Ukraine –, China forecasts for this year a lower growth than in 2021 – around 5.5% –, but a sharp increase in the military budget: + 7.1%. These are the main elements that emerge from the presentation of the 2022 budget and the speech delivered on Saturday March 5 by Prime Minister Li Keqiang at the opening of the annual session of the Chinese Parliament.
A ritual exercise, this speech is the result of a long administrative process which indicates the government’s priorities for the current year. For 2022, these are self-explanatory: “Do everything to brilliantly inaugurate the XXand party congress, to be held in the fall. International issues traditionally occupy only a marginal place. Tensions with the United States or the war in Ukraine are therefore not explicitly mentioned. These will be addressed by the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, early next week, during another ritual exercise: his only annual press conference.
On Taiwan, the Prime Minister added something new compared to his previous speeches. If it’s still about “promote peaceful development of relations between the two shores” – word “peaceful” is important – Li Keqiang clarifies: “We are determined to fight secessionist activities aimed at Taiwan independence and outside interference. » In previous years, interference did not feature in the speech. The increase in military spending, at an even higher rate than in 2021 – when it had increased by 6.8% – is another message sent to Westerners, even if China’s military budget (around 209 billion dollars euros) remains much lower than that of the United States (709 billion euros).
“More aggressive behavior of Xi Jinping”
Few observers, however, believe that China is ready to undertake military action against Taiwan in the near future. A few months from the XXand congress of the Chinese Communist Party, the time has come “the general stability of society”. The American Jude Blanchette, an expert at the CSIS (Center for Strategic International Studies) in Washington, rather expects a “more aggressive behavior of Xi Jinping” after Congress. According to him, the Chinese leader has shown relative moderation over the past two years, in particular due to the crisis linked to Covid-19.
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