A war is looming in the western Pacific: China’s ruler Xi Jinping (68) wants to attack and annex the neighboring island of Taiwan. Taiwan is a democratic country that Beijing treats as a breakaway province. After the civil war that the Maoists won in 1949, the defeated Chinese fled to this island and continued the Republic of China there. Taiwan has been a flourishing democracy for thirty years, and according to the international democracy index, it is actually the best in Asia.
Citizens take part in annual online hackathons in which they can propose improvements to their government: ten million of the 23 million inhabitants are there. The country is tolerant and cosmopolitan; it was the first in East Asia to introduce marriage for all. The younger generations no longer feel Chinese today, even if their great-grandparents came to the island from China. The differences to the dictatorship next door are simply too great.
China’s anger with democracy
This annoys Xi Jinping, because he wants to sell the world that the Chinese are not made for democracy, but for what he calls “socialism with Chinese characteristics”. It doesn’t fit him at all that 23 million Han Chinese have built a successful democracy next door. He sees the danger that the democratic fire could also spread to the People’s Republic and transform the country.
Therefore, he is now openly threatening Taiwan with war and annexation. His fighter jets fly to Taiwan’s aviation security zone every day to provoke the government in Taipei. Military strategists in the USA have calculated that the moment could come in 2027: Then, in their opinion, the Chinese army would be modernized so that it could dare to attack. The Chinese military is already stronger overall than the Taiwanese, but the Chinese soldiers have no experience of war on land. The Russians are currently helping them with this. Putin’s army trains the People’s Liberation Army.
The Americans, who are Taiwan’s closest ally, have already announced that they will stand firmly by island democracy. Japan, once the colonial power in Taiwan, is now a friend of the country and ready to support it. However, both governments are holding back a little with definitive defense pledges in order not to lure the hardliners in Beijing into a hasty and bloody attack.
China wants to control the entire western Pacific
In the end, Beijing doesn’t just want Taiwan. It has conflicts with the Philippines, South Korea and Japan. Xi Jinping’s goal is to take territory from all of these countries in order to be able to declare the entire western Pacific to be a sea of China. Today this part of the ocean is international water, on which a large part of the world trade goods are transported. Important internet cables also run along the bottom of this ocean. When China annexes the territory and the waters, the entire trading world will have to dance to its tune. Xi would rejoice.
The region’s democracies, including Australia, are preparing for the worst. Canberra recently signed a major deal with Washington and London that will mean new nuclear submarines for Australia, state-of-the-art military equipment and more stationed US soldiers for Australia and the region. India, another neighbor of the People’s Republic with whom Xi has border conflicts, is also planning to expand its fleet.
Does economic pressure protect against war?
Meanwhile, Taiwanese are concerned about Beijing’s increasing aggression, but aren’t desperate. On the occasion of the birthday of the Republic of China, which is celebrated every year on October 10, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen (65) has once again emphasized that she wants to find a peaceful solution with her neighbor. Xi Jinping has rejected that, for him Taiwan is not an equal partner. Ms. Tsai also said that the Taiwanese military and people will defend the island’s democracy and freedom against China’s aggression. In polls, it has well over eighty percent of the population behind it, because people have seen what Xi and his nomenclature did to the people in Hong Kong. People in Taiwan are certain that if Beijing had the opportunity, it would also subjugate the Taiwanese.
Taiwan is an important international trading partner. Many of the chips that end up in western cell phones are made there. The country is also an important friend in the Alliance of Democracies, which the free world must not let go. In the years to come, it will therefore be important to make it clear to Beijing that an attack on its peaceful neighbor would have drastic consequences for China, especially economic ones. Perhaps, through determined economic pressure from the free world, a military confrontation that would cost many lives on all sides can be prevented.
* Dr. Alexander Görlach is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs in New York. Most recently, he published «Focal Point Hong Kong: Why the Future of the Free World is Decided in China» (Hoffmann & Campe, 2020).