Dhe case of the Chinese balloon flying over North America raises questions that are difficult to answer from the outside. Only the leadership in Beijing knows exactly what it was used for; in the United States one can at least expect some information from the evaluation of the debris.
It is unclear whether the aircraft flew so visibly over American territory unintentionally or whether there was a political intention behind it, as is the question of whether and what it was able to spy on during its day-long flight. Presumably, both sides will benefit from the incident: the Chinese now know how America reacts to this kind of violation of its airspace; the Americans gain new insights into the state of Chinese (military) technology.
strategic competition
However, the political consequences are clear. The difficult relations between the reigning world power and its only serious rival cannot be improved at the moment. Blinken’s canceled visit to Beijing would hardly have defused the strategic competition in substance. But he could have made the relationship a little more predictable for both sides.
As it is, the balloon flight will reinforce the great and in many ways justified suspicions that prevail in Washington about China’s intentions. Prudent action does not make this any easier, as Republican criticism of the late launch shows. Beijing, on the other hand, cannot simply ignore the shooting.
The episode shows the Europeans once again that the scope for an independent China policy will be narrow for the foreseeable future. As long as America feels challenged, it will call for support from Asia. This also has indirect consequences for Ukraine. The already slight prospect of Xi Jinping having a moderating effect on Putin depends not least on how China’s relationship with the leading Western power develops.