Civil war worries Thailand
“Military junta loses control of Myanmar”
April 26, 2024, 6:01 p.m
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The power of the military junta in Myanmar is waning. In the fight against rebels, it drops bombs over its own country. The opaque situation in the border town of Myawaddy is bringing the conflict closer to Thailand than the government in Bangkok would like.
Suddenly the conflict in Myanmar between the military and rebels is no longer just a distant war for Thailand. There has been fighting right on the border for weeks. Again and again, thousands of people temporarily flee from fighting and air strikes by the military junta to the safety of their neighboring country. Soldiers and armored army vehicles patrol there.
On the Myanmar side, it is about control of the important trading and gambling post Myawaddy, which is only separated from the Thai town of Mae Sot by a river. The unrest is also evident at the political level: just a few days ago, Thai Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara traveled to Mae Sot, accompanied by the Interior and Defense Ministers. It was Parnpree’s second visit to the border town within a few days.
In the multi-ethnic state of Myanmar, generals have ruled with an iron fist since the military coup in February 2021; They locked up then-ousted Prime Minister Aung San Suu Kyi in prison. Since October, however, the military junta’s rule has come under increasing pressure since ethnic rebel groups launched a military offensive against the generals in areas near the Chinese border.
Bangkok’s appeal for peace falls flat
The conflict has now moved much closer to Thailand than the government in Bangkok would like. On April 12, the day after the takeover of the economically and strategically important Myawaddy by a rebel alliance around the KNLA (Karen National Liberation Army), Thailand’s foreign minister warned of an escalation. “We want to see peace in Myawaddy, not only because of trade but also because it is our neighbor,” he said. “We don’t want there to be further violence.”
At the same time, he offered the Thai government a mediating role. There is also talk of including important members of the Southeast Asian community of states, Asean, including Indonesia and the current Asean chairmanship, Laos. It’s not just about peace, but also about money. Because every day that the important trade between Myawaddy and Mae Sot is interrupted means losses worth millions, as the independent think tank “Institute for Strategy and Politics – Myanmar” calculated.
The rebel alliance had previously captured the garrison of the 275th Infantry Battalion four kilometers west of Myawaddy and thus occupied all army posts in the city. But the generals in the former Burma do not want to give in at any price. Since they had already suffered heavy losses in several parts of the country in recent months and did not want to accept further humiliation, they responded with massive air strikes on Myawaddy and surrounding villages. Reinforcing the troops in the city is problematic because there is only one major access road and it is monitored by rebels.
“It’s like it’s raining bombs from the sky”
Since early April 20, the military is believed to have dropped 130 bombs on Myawaddy over two days, KNLA members reported. According to unconfirmed reports, at least ten civilians were killed – the exact number is unclear. “It was like it was raining bombs from the sky. We were so scared,” said one local resident, 23-year-old Saw Htoo. Like many others, he temporarily fled to Thailand – the otherwise busy trading post of Myawaddy was suddenly almost deserted.
On Wednesday, the rebels withdrew from the city in what they said was a strategic maneuver. It is unclear who is currently in control there. “The military has threatened to destroy the entire city and I believe they are carrying out their threat,” said a KNLA commander. The rebel alliance has decided to wait and currently primarily stop junta troops who are trying to reach Myawaddy.
The junta’s power is declining
In this extremely opaque situation, one thing is becoming apparent: “The junta no longer has full control over the country and its power is decreasing,” explains a political analyst from Myanmar who wishes to remain anonymous. Currently – although the junta has significant air power and stand-off weapons, according to the Crisis Group think tank – the generals only control the capital Naypyidaw and larger cities such as Yangon and Mandalay. However, many important trading posts on the borders with China, India and Thailand are in rebel hands. “That’s the reality,” says the expert.
The military repeatedly responds to this with air strikes: Just on Thursday evening, several people died and many more were seriously injured in an air strike on a hospital in the city of Mindat in Chin State on the border with India. The Chinland Defense Force has been fighting the junta in the area for three years – and now partially controls the region.
The people of Myawaddy now also live in constant fear. Many people wait at night on the banks of the Moei River so that they can quickly flee to the Thai side in an emergency. “We can’t do anything other than monitor the situation closely,” said Saw Htoo, who has now returned home with his mother to Myawaddy, where the family runs a shop. “We are never sure what will happen next.”