How long does the food last? The farmers’ association does not dare to make any forecasts beyond the first quarter of next year. The current harvest is better than last year, but still below average.
Wheat harvest in July in Zschepplin in Saxony. Here, and especially in neighboring Saxony-Anhalt, lies the breadbasket of Germany, and the drought is taking its toll.
Good news first: The German wine of the 2022 vintage will be excellent. The apples look just as good. Otherwise, however, the ongoing drought is a problem for German farmers. Their harvest balance for 2022 is mixed. Some yields are higher than in the previous year, but lower than the long-term average, while others have fallen significantly. Farmers demand compensation unlike in some previous years, not this time. Instead, they look to the future with concern.
A total of 43 million tons of grain were harvested this year, which is two percent more than in the previous year and yet less than the annual average of 45.6 million tons. The most important crop is wheat, 22 million tons, also slightly more than in the previous year and yet eight percent below the average. Rapeseed is the most important oil crop in Germany. A similar picture emerges here too: Four million tons, more than in the previous year, but less than the long-term average of 4.24 million tons. The situation is worse for grain maize, sugar beets and potatoes, where there are sometimes large crop failures.
Farmers are feeling the impact of climate change directly in many ways, and they are reacting to it: “We are trying to use more water-saving methods and also to grow more resilient varieties,” said the President of the German Farmers’ Association, Joachim Rukwied, on Tuesday when he reviewed the harvest balance presented for the year 2022. However, this requires new breeding techniques. He called on politicians to make a decision on how to use the “Crispr/Cas” gene scissors. The crop rotations would also be loosened up, heat-loving varieties such as soybeans would be included, and the cultivation of chickpeas would also be tested.
Without nitrogen fertilizer, hunger breaks out
Overall, the supply situation remains tense. According to Rukwied, you will only be in the “green zone” until the end of the first quarter of next year. What happens next depends crucially on the question of fertilizers: “There are three basic nutrients, nitrogen, phosphoric acid and potash. We don’t know whether we have enough nitrogen available, because we depend on the availability of gas for the production of nitrogen fertilizers,” says Rukwied. “If you do without nitrogen fertilization, you will have a drop in yield of 30-50 percent, depending on the crop.” That’s why the farmers’ association advocates preferential treatment for nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers when it comes to gas.
Like all sectors, agriculture has to contend with sharply increased costs: Energy prices have doubled, fertilizer costs have quadrupled, animal feed costs have risen. “We farmers need stable and, in some cases, increasing revenues in order to be able to continue doing business,” said Rukwied. However, consumers are reluctant to do so. Households are also burdened by inflation and energy costs and pay more attention to the price when shopping. This can also be seen in the organic sector: the demand for the more expensive organic grain is falling.
Criticism of EU plans for plant protection
The topic of security of supply will remain relevant globally in the coming years. The weather and the world market have a direct impact on the cash situation of the farmers. Likewise the competition in Europe. Some German asparagus fields were not even harvested this year because customers bought fewer and then mostly cheaper imported asparagus. Rukwied warned that without a uniform minimum wage in Europe, there would soon be no more domestic fruit and vegetables.
He was also critical of the EU’s plans to halve the use of pesticides. “To put it bluntly: we are fully committed to the goals, we too want to use less pesticides and increase biodiversity,” said the President of the Farmers’ Association. “But if these plans were implemented in this way, it would lead directly to the food crisis. We farmers in Europe would then no longer be able to guarantee food sovereignty in Europe.” This threatens stability and a united Europe as a whole.