Climate Council contradicts Habeck
Experts: Climate targets for 2030 will probably be missed
03.06.2024, 10:56 a.m.
Climate Protection Minister Habeck claims that Germany is “on track” when it comes to climate protection. Experts see things differently. The climate targets for 2030 are unlikely to be achieved – especially in two sectors. The federal government could soon be forced to act.
The government’s expert council for climate issues sees Germany’s climate targets for 2030 in danger and contradicts Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck. They cannot confirm that the target for greenhouse gas emissions from 2021 to 2030 will be achieved; on the contrary, they assume that the target will be missed, the experts explained after examining the expected emissions up to 2030. The experts recommended that the traffic light government quickly examine new climate protection instruments, especially in the construction and transport sectors. In March, the Federal Environment Agency had judged on the basis of these so-called projection data that the 2030 target could be achieved. “Germany is on track – for the first time,” Habeck said in response.
This is now fundamentally called into question by the expert council’s ruling. The expert council is given the role of independently reviewing the data in the Climate Protection Act. Its ruling is decisive. The council is even strengthened in the new Climate Protection Act, which was recently passed by the Bundestag and Bundesrat. Although the law is not yet formally in force, the expert council was given the task of reviewing the data in the light of the new law. According to the new climate law, the expert council’s ruling is decisive as to whether Germany needs to make adjustments to climate protection with additional instruments. However, this will only take effect if the expert council determines this twice in a row with regard to the data up to 2030.
Construction and transport sectors fail to achieve 2023 targets
If this were to happen again in 2025, the current traffic light government would still be required to do more to protect the climate. However, the verdict would then come in the hot phase of the 2025 federal election campaign. Germany is obliged to emit 65 percent less greenhouse gases by 2030. In 2023, Germany had met its target overall, but the individual sectors of transport and construction had failed to meet theirs. Under the new law, however, the sectors no longer have to launch emergency programs to get back on track. The crucial thing is that Germany as a whole achieves its respective annual targets and, according to the projection data, will also achieve them in 2030.
The experts based their verdict on the 2030 target on an underestimation of the expected greenhouse gas emissions in several sectors. This applies, for example, to industry, which has recently produced less CO2 due to the economic weakness. But the data provided by the Federal Environment Agency are also too optimistic for all other sectors except agriculture and waste management. It also shows that even after 2030, Germany will not be on track to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. However, according to the new Climate Protection Act, this does not have to be responded to until the end of the decade. This is incomprehensible. Time will then be too short to act.
Unclear responsibility within the government
The same applies to the fact that, with a view to 2030, no action is taken after the failure has been identified for the first time. “Against this background, we recommend not waiting for the target to be missed again, but rather examining the timely implementation of additional measures,” advised committee chairman Hans-Martin Henning. To make matters worse, the responsibility within the government is not clearly defined in the new climate law. While previously the ministers had to act for the areas that had missed their sector targets, the entire government is now responsible.
However, it is unclear who is in charge. The looming problem with the European Union has also not been resolved: while the sector targets for transport, construction and agriculture have lost importance in Germany with the new law, this is not the case in the EU. If a country fails to meet its targets here, it must buy emission rights in other countries that exceed their targets. In practical terms, these are fines that could amount to billions for Germany in the coming years.