32% of vehicles produced in 2029 will be electric, whereas they should represent 57.5% to meet the objectives of the Paris agreement.
The production plans of the world’s major car manufacturers for zero-emission, electric or hydrogen vehicles will be very far from meeting the objective of limiting global warming to +1.5°C, an NGO warned on Tuesday.
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InfluenceMap, a think tank specializing in the relationship between the economic and financial world and the climate crisis, has combined data from IHS Markit (S&P Global) on automotive production in the world with a 2021 study from the International Agency for Energy (IEA) on scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, and meeting the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement of “limit temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”.
While road transport accounts for nearly 20% of CO2 emissions, the IEA calculates that to meet this objective, zero-emission individual cars (ZEV) should represent 57.5% of total sales in 2030 and 20% of total stock. cars in 2030, then 86% in 2050. In 2021 electric vehicles represented 5.9% of sales and hybrids 2.4%, notes the study. However, according to production forecasts (data from March 2022) analyzed by InfluenceMap, 68% of vehicles produced in 2029 will still be thermal combustion, including hybrid vehicles, compared to 32% electric and 0.1% to hydrogen.
The SUVs in question
Out of 12 major global manufacturers studied (including none Chinese) only Tesla, which only produces electric vehicles, and Mercedes-Benz (56% of ZEV in 2029) are in line with these objectives. They are followed by the other major German groups BMW (45%) and Vokswagen (43%), the Japanese manufacturers at the bottom of the pack, Nissan (22%), Honda (18%, but the data used does not take into account account the latest announcements of the group in terms of ZEV, underlines the study) as well as Toyota (14%). The other manufacturers studied are Stellantis (ex-PSA-Fiat-Chrysler, 40%), Ford (36%), Renault (31%), General Motors (28%) and Hyundai (27%). Without going into the details of the Chinese market, the study notes that electric vehicles should increase there from 12% of production in 2021 to 40% in 2029.
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Regarding the different segments of the market, InfluenceMap notes that the persistent craze for SUVs, which are heavier and consume more energy, which should increase from 39% of the world market in 2020 to 47% in 2029, risks “undo many of the emission reductions associated with the increase in electric vehicles”.