THE TREND
(Boursier.com) — The Parisian market erases its decline over the last three negative sessions with a rebound of 1.05% at the close this Friday. The CAC40 has recovered to 7,465 points and has only lost 1% since the beginning of January. Luxury, however, weighed a little on the trend today, partly because of the British group’s warning Burberry which lowered its annual profit forecast after disappointing sales in December. In contrast, the aeronautics sector confirmed its great form.
Yesterday’s publication of an American consumer price index showing growth slightly higher than expected did not significantly change expectations of monetary easing, which remains the main theme guiding the markets this year.
According to the FedWatch barometer, the probability is still more than 90% that the Fed will opt for a monetary status quo on January 31, leaving its rates unchanged between 5.25 and 5.50%, while the first easing would take place on the 20th. March (76% probability). The same tool shows that rates could end the year in a range of 3.75% to 4% (40% probability), or even between 3.5% and 3.75%, a scenario with a probability of approximately 31% is associated.
RISING VALUES
* Airbus climbs 3.7% to 149.2 euros, a new historic high. The European giant exceeded its delivery target for fiscal 2023 and recorded record net/gross orders. Airbus delivered 735 aircraft (highest shipments since fiscal 2019) against guidance of 720 units and a Visible Alpha consensus of 723. The firm also recorded a record of 2,094 net orders/2,319 gross orders per year. pass. The order book currently stands at 8,598 aircraft. As Stifel analysts point out, needless to say, Airbus effortlessly beat Boeing in both gross orders (1,456) and deliveries (527).
* The aeronautical group Saffron took the opportunity to gain almost 3% to 168.5 euros, also its best stock market level.
* New summit also for Vinci (+1.9% to 116.7 euros) which indicated that its 2023 free cash flow should finally exceed its level reached in 2022, which stood at €5.4 billion, thus marking a new record.
* Teleperformance confirms its rebound from the day before by increasing again by 4.9% to 139.6 euros. Morgan Stanley reduced its price target from 220 to 178 euros (‘line weighting’).
* Bureau Veritas gained 3% to 23.4 euros. Morgan Stanley moved to ‘overweight’.
FALLING VALUES
* Kering loses 1.2% and LVMH 0.3%. Burberry finally limited its decline to 4.5% in London after its warning. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be between £410 million and £460 million ($523 million to $587 million) for the year to the end of March, compared to previous guidance of £552 million to £668 million. In November, Burberry warned that this year’s revenue target could be out of reach due to weak sales momentum. This meant that its profit would likely be at the lower end of its guided range. That won’t even be the case. The appointment of Daniel Lee as creative head to revitalize the company’s popularity is struggling to bear fruit.
Also note: Jefferies reduced its target on Kering from 420 to 400 euros (‘keep’) and reduced the cursor on LVMH from 710 to 695 euros (‘keep’).
* Catastrophic start to the year for Atos which fell by almost 15% again to 4.86 euros this weekend. A scoundrel who brings the decline in the stock since January 1st to more than 25%. The latest announcements from the IT services company, and in particular the opening of discussions with Airbus with a view to selling BDS to it, are far from having convinced the operators. Some analysts recently claimed that the market had been too optimistic about the price at which the IT group could sell its assets to consolidate its balance sheet. And this while a capital increase still hovers over the company.
* Kalray plunged more than 8% to 18.5 euros the day after a particularly disappointing publication. The specialist in hardware and software technologies dedicated to the management and intensive processing of data only achieved €25.8 million in turnover in 2023. This figure shows growth of +57% compared to 2022 but stands out clearly lower than the recently lowered forecast to around 30 ME. A large order, initially scheduled for the end of 2023, is now expected in January. As a result, the initial target of breakeven EBITDA in 2023 could not be achieved. Kalray now expects a large improvement in its EBITDA, the loss of which should be halved in 2023 (last year, 2022 EBITDA was -2.7 ME).