(Boursier.com) — The CAC40 reached new heights on Friday, after a calm morning, the market ventured in the afternoon to record levels to end up 0.51% at 7,577 points. Many financial publications moderated the session, in particular EssilorLuxottica, at the top of the CAC40 after an excellent first quarter.
On the macroeconomic side, the American statistics published recently have only reinforced the fear of an imminent recession of the first world economy: the leading economic index of the Conference Board has fallen to the lowest since November 2020, home resales have started up again On the downside in March, the Philly Fed activity index plunged to its lowest level in nearly three years and jobless claims rose slightly. In this context, investors want to see the bright side of things: a recession would put an end to the Fed’s monetary tightening and validate the last tightening of key rates in early May… In the meantime, the euro climbs back to 1 .0970/$, while oil stands at $81.55 for Brent.
RISING VALUES
Mauna Kea rises by 15% near its accounts, followed by Balyo (+8%)
EssilorLuxottica gain 6%. At its highest since January 2022, the title of the world’s number one optical lens is driven by a very good quarterly publication with consolidated sales of 6.151 billion euros (5.94 billion euros consensus), up 8.6% at constant exchange rates (+9.7% at current exchange rates). All regions are accelerating compared to the 4th quarter of last year. Goldman Sachs revalued EssilorLuxottica from 190 to 194 euros (‘buy’).
GTT increased by 3.5%, while the consolidated turnover for the first quarter amounted to 79.9 ME, up 17.2% compared to the first quarter of 2022. The turnover linked to constructions new vehicles amounted to 73.5 ME, up 19% compared to the turnover of the first quarter of 2022.
Interparfums : +3.5% with Synergy
L’Oreal still progresses by 3.5%, at an all-time high. Berenberg raised its price target from 378 to 412 euros and Deutsche Bank from 410 to 425 euros (‘hold’).
Office Veritas earns 2.5%. The turnover of Office Veritas reached 1.405 billion euros in the 1st quarter of 2023, an increase of +8.9% compared to the 1st quarter of 2022. Organic growth amounted to +8.5%, thanks to sustained momentum in all activities on sustainability and energy transition issues. Bureau Veritas expects 2023 to achieve mid-single-digit organic revenue growth. The adjusted operating margin is expected to be stable.
Ubisoft : +2.5% followed by Remy Cointreau, Believe, Waga, Bolloré, Catana
Mersen : +1.5% with Nexans, Eurofins, Atos, Pernod Ricard
Veolia gained 1.1%, helped by an analyst’s note. In a study dedicated to the European sector of utilities, Deutsche Bank raises to ‘buy’ its recommendation on the French group and raises its target price from 24 to 33 euros. She highlights “undemanding” multiples and improved communication.
Sanofi : +1% with Getlink and JC Decaux
FALLING VALUES
GenSight collapsed 70% to 0.73 euros, as the company decided to withdraw its marketing authorization application for Lumevoq in Europe before obtaining the final opinion of the CAT. This choice follows recent interactions with the Committee for Innovative Therapies Medicines (CAT) indicating that the data provided so far would not be sufficient to support a positive opinion on the MA of the product. The company will now start discussions with the EMA in order to assess what the possible options would be to register the product as soon as possible.
“We disagree with the current assessment of the CAT, and remain very confident in the clinical benefit of Lumevoq for patients with LHON, which is supported by extensive evidence from multiple clinical trials and real life,” commented Bernard Gilly, CEO and co-founder of GenSight. “The decision to withdraw our application allows us to continue to work with the EMA to agree a regulatory path forward as soon as possible.”
Following this bad news, Oddo BHF downgraded the stock to ‘underperform’ and cut its target from 7 to 1.5 euro. A decision which reflects the completion of a new phase III for Lumevoq in Europe, a postponement of the launch in Europe to 2026 (vs 2024) and in the US to 2028 (vs 2027), a probability of approval of 45% (vs 80 %), the dilution attached to a probable capital increase of 20 ME at a price of 1.5 euro and a WACC of 20% (vs 15%) in order to reflect an increased financial risk.
Bryan Garnier adjusts his model to include changes in timelines, operating expenses and additional risk, and cuts his target from 9 to 2.5 euros. This leads it to adopt a ‘neutral’ view, although visibility remains limited for the moment with the combination of a delay and financial over-indebtedness.
Ipsos loses 13%, sanctioned after a disappointing publication. The company’s turnover in the 1st quarter reached 532 million euros, down 2.9% and 2.8% on an organic basis. The group was penalized by strong unfavorable base effects, the global context of uncertainty which led some customers to show a wait-and-see attitude in their decision-making at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, and the recovery of China following the abandonment of the zero-Covid policy which led to strong lag effects between the order book and revenues in the 1st quarter. In a context subject to the vagaries of global uncertainties and beyond the unfavorable comparison effects with the 1st quarter of 2022, Ipsos remains confident in its ability to achieve organic growth of around 5% this year and operating margin of around 13%.
Casino fell 6%, followed by Solutions30 which fell 5%, abandoned after the announcement of a heavy annual loss despite rising revenues. Over the whole of the 2022 financial year, the group suffered a net deficit of 50.1 ME, against a profit of 21.5 ME in 2021, for a consolidated turnover of 904.6 ME, an increase of +3.5% (+1.4% organically). Adjusted EBITDA stood at 46.7 ME against 82.4 ME a year earlier. The good performance of activities outside France, which constitute the pillar of future growth, is masked by the poor performance of French activities.
dare : -4.5% with Eramet, FNAC Darty, DBV
Vallourec : -3.5% with Wavestone, OVH which is sinking further after its warning
Houses of the world lost another 3% at the end of the week, again penalized by analysts’ notes. Berenberg lowered its target on the stock from 19 to 15 euros while remaining on the ‘buy’ side. The analyst explains that the company, along with the rest of the furniture and décor distribution segment, has been navigating choppy waters since May 2022, when the level of demand for furniture and décor suddenly dropped. While the Christmas period showed some recovery in sales, this was only temporary as activity faltered again from January, as explained by management.
Transgene : -3% with Nacon, Innate
Vicat : -2.5% with Lagardère, BigBen, Manitou, Seb and Aubay (-2%)
Renault loses another 1% below 33 euros. Invest Securities reduced its target from 60 to 57 euros (‘buy’).