THE TREND
(Boursier.com) — The favorable trend was confirmed this afternoon on the Parisian market, the CAC40 finally climbing by 1.47% to 6,860 points, back to the highest since February 2022! That’s more than 5.5% in gains over this first week of the year in a market that is still very attentive to signs of moderation in inflationary pressures…
It should be noted in this regard that the US ISM for American services published today came out much lower than expected, which has lowered monetary tightening expectations a little. The ISM index of American services for the month of December 2022 collapsed to 49.6, against 55 market consensus and 56.5 a month earlier. This indicator therefore falls below the fateful 50 mark, signaling a contraction in activity…
According to the report from the US Department of Labor on Friday, the creation of non-agricultural jobs for the month of December emerged on their side at the number of 223,000, compared to a FactSet consensus of 205,000. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, while the consensus of local economists was 3.7%. Thus, the unemployment rate is back to pre-pandemic levels and the lowest since… 1969!
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the current probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on February 1, following the next monetary meeting, stands at around 77%, compared to a 23% probability of a gesture of 50 basis points. The current range is 4.25 to 4.5%. The same tool shows that the peak in rates could be reached in May between 5 and 5.25%, obviously depending on the famous “future developments” concerning inflation and the economy in general…
The other good news of the day came from the annual inflation rate in the euro zone estimated by Eurostat at 9.2% in December, against 10.1% in November… The market was expecting a less marked slowdown to 9 .5%. As for the main components of inflation, energy is expected to experience the highest annual rate in December (25.7%, compared to 34.9% in November), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco ( 13.8%, compared to 13.6% in November), industrial goods excluding energy (6.4%, compared to 6.1% in November) and services (4.4%, compared to 4.2% in November), details the statistical office of the European Union. Sequentially, prices would fall by 0.3%.
RISING VALUES
SergeFerrari: +6% followed by Transgene which announced that it had received authorization from the National Agency for the Safety of Medicines and Health Products (ANSM), to carry out a Phase I clinical trial of the innovative oncolytic virus TG6050 in France. This new drug candidate will be administered intravenously to patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). TG6050 comes from the patented Invir.IO platform. It was engineered to express human IL-12, a cytokine known to elicit a potent antitumor immune response, and a full-length anti-CTLA4 antibody. TG6050 has the potential to induce a potent antitumor response by combining several mechanisms of action: it selectively targets cancer cells and expresses IL-12 and anti-CTLA4 antibody directly in the tumor microenvironment. TG6050 has been designed to be administered by intravenous infusion, a route of administration whose safety and feasibility have already been demonstrated with an oncolytic virus from Invir.IO. Intravenous administration significantly increases the therapeutic and market potential of this oncolytic. In fact, it is a targeted approach which makes it possible to reach various cancerous lesions and metastases inaccessible by intratumoral injection. Intratumoral administration, which consists of injecting the treatment directly into the tumour, is currently the only route of administration authorized for oncolytic viruses at the commercial stage; IV administration would represent a significant advance…
J.C. Decaux : +5% with Nexans and Seb
McPhy : +4% with Odet
Saffron earn 3%. The equipment and engine manufacturer is boosted by a note from Bernstein who raised to ‘outperform’ his advice on the value while raising the cursor from 118 to 142 euros. 2023 should be a solid year for the commercial aerospace and defense sectors, according to the analyst, which makes Safran its first global choice in the industry for the financial year just started.
Casino : +3% with rally, Renault, LVMH and Hermes with GTT
MedinCell wins 3.5%. After a note from IT CAP Midcap on Tuesday, the pharmaceutical company is this time driven by the announcement of positive results for the SAIVE clinical study in the prevention of Covid-19 infection in a population of contact cases.
getlink advance of 1.8%. The buying flow on the Channel Tunnel operator is linked to a note from SocGen which raised its recommendation to ‘hold’ while adjusting its target from 18.3 to 16.5 euros. The market is divided on the title since, according to the ‘Bloomberg’ consensus, 4 analysts are ‘buy’, 11 ‘hold’ and 2 ‘sell’. The average 12-month target is set at 18.39 euros.
TotalEnergies picked up 1.2% while the barrel of Brent remained below 80 dollars, down sharply over the week.
Stellantis (+0.6%) could press the brake more to cope with the current environment and continue the electrification of its range. “If we don’t optimize our cost structure, we can’t absorb the additional cost of electrification,” which risks driving up car prices and shrinking the market,” Carlos Tavares told Las Vegas at the Consumer Electronics Show “If the market shrinks, we don’t need as many factories. Some unpopular decisions will have to be made.”
FALLING VALUES
Ubisoft 4% slip with Stedim
Engie (-3%) successfully completed a green bond issue in three tranches for a total amount of 2.75 billion euros. The terms of each tranche are as follows: 1 billion euros at 7 years, bearing a coupon of 3.625%; 1 billion euros at 12 years, bearing a coupon of 4%; and 750 million euros at 20 years, bearing a coupon of 4.25%. The average coupon for the operation stands at 3.93% for an average term of 12.4 years. This issue pre-finances a substantial part of the group’s financing needs for 2023 and strengthens its liquidity.
Deezer : -2.8% followed by dare, inventive, believe and Danone degraded by Morgan Stanley
Atos fell 1.5% on Friday, in a still lively market. According to BFMTV, the government would be “little excited” by the supposed offensive ofAirbus on the Atos subsidiary, Evidian. Citing sources, BFMTV reports that the French government considers that German influence and power within Airbus would be too strong to allow the sale of Atos cybersecurity activities to the company. The article goes on to note that the French government would likely favor Thales to acquire the Atos unit.
Lagardere down 1.5% with OVH, Orpea, Valneva, colas and bic (-1%)
Sodexo down 1%. Consolidated revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 at Sodexo reached 6.3 billion euros, up +20.2% compared to the previous fiscal year, including a contribution from acquisitions net of disposals of -1.2%, and a very positive currency effect of +9.2%, reflecting the appreciation of the US dollar and the Brazilian real. The objectives for the 2023 financial year are maintained: internal growth expected between +8 and +10% and operating margin close to 5.5% at constant exchange rates.