(Boursier.com) — THE TREND
The CAC40, which had risen above 7,600 points in the morning, lost almost all of its lead in the afternoon to finish up a symbolic 0.05% to 7,592 points.
Wall Street, however, is benefiting this Friday from the spectacular rebounds of Meta and D’Amazon on the heels of impressive financial results. However, the equation remains complicated for the Fed, while the latest US employment figures for January came out surprisingly strong and wage inflation is visibly much higher than expected…
Today’s government report on the American employment situation for the month of January 2024 revealed 353,000 non-agricultural job creations, twice as many as expected! Creations in the private sector numbered 317,000, more than twice the consensus, while manufacturing job creations were 23,000. The unemployment rate remains at around 3.7%. The average hourly wage is growing twice as fast as expected, up 0.6% compared to the previous month (+4.5% over one year). The labor force participation rate reached 62.5%. The FactSet consensus was for 176,500 non-agricultural job creations and 148,000 in the private sector. The unemployment rate was expected at 3.8%. The average hourly wage was expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year.
Regarding Fed rates, expectations of monetary easing are thus falling… The probability of a new monetary status quo leaving rates unchanged between 5.25 and 5.50% on federal funds on the 20 March, at the end of the next meeting, is now at more than 78%. For the meeting of April 30 and May 1, the most probable hypothesis (approximately 58%) is that of a range of 5-5.25%, i.e. a relaxation of a quarter of a point, but there is also 28% probability that rates will still remain at their current levels…
The euro fell to 1.08 this evening, while oil returned to $77 per Brent.
RISING VALUES
Prodways : +7% with Claranova, Coty (+6%)
LNA : +4% with MdM (+3.5%)
Vallourec rebounded by 3.5%. It must be said that the specialist in seamless tubes has announced that its 2023 results will ultimately be higher than its previous outlook. The Gross Operating Profit (GRO) for the closed financial year should be higher than 1.190 billion euros (between 1.075 and 1.175 billion euros previously). The EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2023 would thus exceed 275 million euros. Overall cash generation in the fourth quarter of 2023, previously expected to be positive, is expected to exceed 140 ME, which includes around 37 ME linked to the sale of the Muelheim site. “The Group achieved its best Gross Operating Profit and its best cash generation in almost 15 years. Following our reduction in debt, we aim to achieve a significant return to shareholders, potentially as early as 2025,” declared Philippe Guillemot, CEO from Vallourec.
Renault : +3% followed by Eutelsat, Nacon (+2.5%) and Edenred
Hermes : +2.5% with Savencia, Sodexo, Believe, Adocia
Stellantis gains 2%. The Peugeot brand posted a good commercial performance in France in January and took leadership of the VP+LCV market with a market share of 16.8%, and an increase of 15.6% in its sales volumes, in a growing market. increase of 8.6%. Peugeot also takes leadership of the passenger vehicle market with 16.7% market share, and an increase of 15.4% in its sales volumes vs. 2023. Peugeot ranks first in the B2B market in France in January 2023 in VP+LCV with in particular the first place occupied by the Peugeot 308. The Peugeot 208 ranks at the top of the best-selling passenger vehicles in France with a market share of 6.8%, up 1.5 points vs. January 2023. The Peugeot e-208 is also number one in the private electric car segment with 10.9% market share.
Schneider Electric rises by 1.5%, while SG remains a buy on the file by raising its target from 190 to 215 euros.
Ayvens : +1.5% followed by Alstom, Teleperformance, Carrefour, Crédit Agricole
Saffron rises by 1.2% while Morgan Stanley remains ‘overweight’ on the issue with a price target raised from 194 to 200 euros. Goldman Sachs yesterday downgraded the aeronautical equipment manufacturer to ‘neutral’, targeting a price of “only” 182 euros. The bank mentioned “limited room for maneuver” for a potential revaluation of the consensus and a strong recent outperformance compared to peers…
Saint Gobain : +1% followed by Airbus, Nexity, ADP, Séché, Quadient, Dior, Elis, IPSOS, Valeo, LVMH, Forvia, Interparfums, Worldline.
FALLING VALUES
Lectra falls by 6%. The selling pressure on the stock is linked to a note from SocGen which downgraded the file to ‘keep’ with a target of 35 euros. Analysts are very divided on the company specializing in software and automatic cutting systems since, according to the ‘Bloomberg’ consensus, 2 are ‘positive’, 2 are ‘neutral’ and 1 is ‘negative’. The average twelve-month objective is set at 32.5 euros.
Euroapi : -3% followed by Medincell, Gl Events
Vetoquinol : -2.5% with McPhy, M&P, DS, P&V
Pluxee fell back by 2%, while the group resulting from the ‘spin-off’ of Sodexo saw its first listing take place with a sharp increase yesterday on the Paris stock exchange. The Pluxee spin-off was implemented according to the defined schedule, namely the detachment and the first listing on Euronext Paris on February 1. Delivery of Pluxee shares to shareholders is scheduled for February 5.
Sanofi : -2% with Casino, OVH, Valneva
BioMerieux : -1.5% followed by JC Decaux, Atos, Bic, Seb, Rexel, TechnipEnergies, Bonduelle, Arkema
BNP Paribas (-1%) fails to rebound after falling 9% yesterday in the wake of lower-than-expected results in the fourth quarter. The bank was particularly penalized by a series of exceptional charges and a weakening of activities linked to consumer credit and commercial real estate. Over the last three months of 2023, the financial institution saw its net income, group share, fall by 50% to 1.07 billion euros, compared to a consensus of €2 billion, for net banking income up slightly from 0. 1% to 10.9 billion euros (11.45 billion euros consensus). Among the latest broker opinions, RBC Capital remains at ‘outperform’ on BNP Paribas but with an adjusted price target of 82 to 77 euros.
TotalEnergies : -1% with Cie des Alpes, Equasens, Air Liquide, Thermador, BNP Paribas which is also not rebounding after its 9% fall yesterday.