THE TREND
(Boursier.com) — Investors regained their senses a little on Tuesday with a CAC40 which regained 1.86% to 7,142 points. French banks remain cautious despite everything after their sharp drop yesterday which tipped the CAC40 by nearly 3% in the wake of the banking crisis from the United States.
The authorities are still trying to reassure the markets after the collapse of the American bank SVB…
In addition, the US consumer price index for February showed an increase of “only” 0.4% compared to the previous month and 6% year-on-year, which came out in line with market expectations. … Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose by 0.5% compared to January and by 5.5% over one year, against respectively 0.4% and 5.5% of market consensus. February average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year, as expected.
Expectations of monetary tightening have fallen considerably since Friday and the fall of Silicon Valley Bank. The major disruptions in the US regional banking segment should prompt the Fed to show much more moderation on March 22, after its next monetary meeting… According to the CME Group’s real-time tool FedWatch, the most likely bigger for this next meeting is that of a quarter-point tightening (86% probability), which would bring the fed funds rate between 4.75 and 5%. The status quo is not excluded at this meeting, with a probability of 14%. Concerning the May 2-3 meeting, the dominant hypothesis is that of a range of 5-5.25% (84% ‘proba’). For the June 13-14 meeting, this same tool gives 50% a range of 4.75-5%, which means that the Fed could proceed with its long-awaited pivot before the end of the first half!
Finally, note that the Financial Times believes that the collapse of SVB shows close parallels with the collapse of the Continental Illinois bank in 1984 in the midst of a cycle of Fed tightening… Paul Volcker, then Fed Chairman , said the monetary tightening cycle had come to an end given the bank bailouts, leading the Fed to cut rates within six months.
On the currencies, the euro goes back above 1.07/$. Oil falls back below $80 for Brent.
RISING VALUES
Maurel & Prom (+14%) revealed a gross operating surplus (EBITDA) for 2022 of $443 million, up 58% compared to the previous financial year ($280 million). Current operating income amounted to $352 million and net income for the 2022 financial year amounted to $206 million, up 71% compared to 2021 ($121 million). The Board of Directors proposes the payment of a dividend of 0.23 euro per share, an increase of 64%…
Adocia : +9% with Medincell
Casino (+7.5%) announced the launch of the sale of part of its stake in Assaí up to 174 million shares (including in the form of ADS) representing 12.9% of Assaí’s capital , in order to accelerate its deleveraging. This number may be increased by a maximum of 80 million shares (including in the form of ADS) representing 5.9% of Assaí’s capital.
OVH : +7% with SES Imagotag after its accounts
Elis : +5% with Elior, Icade and Neoen (+4.5%) with Jacquet Metals
Thales (+4%) decided to reduce its share capital by canceling 3,201,169 own shares held in registered form. They represent 1.5% of the share capital, with effect from March 13, 2023.
Charger gain 4%. Kepler Cheuvreux is buying with an adjusted target of 20 to 22 euros.
Technip Energies : +4% with Lectra, Ose
Score : +3.5% with Sopra, Saffron, AirbusLFE, STM and JC-Decaux
BNP Paribas (+3%) with Societe Generale (+2%) and Agricultural credit (+1%) Axa (steady)
FALLING VALUES
Eutelsat : -3% followed by Claranova, MdM and Inventiva
Eurofins : -2.5% with Cegedim, Poxel
Neurons : -2% with FNAC Darty, Teract, Lagardère
Line data : -1% with Xilam, Nicox
Vivendi (-0.3%) announced that it is entering into exclusive negotiations with the IMI group, a subsidiary of the Czech holding company CMI of the Czech businessman Daniel Kretinsky, for the sale of the entire capital of its publishing group Editis. “This planned operation will have to be accepted by the European Commission and will be the subject of information-consultation procedures with the staff representative bodies concerned”, specifies the media group, adding that “in this context, the plan to distribute the shares Editis to Vivendi shareholders, and their listing on the Euronext Growth market, is suspended”.