With his announcement of a 100 billion euro special fund, Chancellor Scholz took his coalition partners and his own party by surprise. Even if the SPD wants to follow him first, Scholz’s announcements could shake the foundation of the traffic light.
It was a historic reversal that Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in the Bundestag last Sunday: Germany is arming itself for a permanent confrontation with an aggressive political leadership in Russia. The “turning point” invoked by Scholz caused a worldwide echo, and the “New York Times” also described the realignment of the Federal Republic’s defense policy as a historic step. And in Germany? The matter is far from settled, because both the manner of the Scholz announcements and their content put the cohesion of the traffic light coalition to the test.
“Better equipment, modern operational equipment, more personnel – that costs a lot of money. “We will set up a special fund ‘Bundeswehr’ for this,” said Scholz. In the well-filled plenum, the parliamentarians listened intently, at least the heads of the government coalitions were up to this point inaugurated into the Chancellor’s plans.Then the bang: “The federal budget for 2022 will provide this special fund with a one-off amount of 100 billion euros.”Unrest in the government factions, even their leaders exchanged questioning looks.
Three days later, it is still unclear who knew everything about this enormous sum in advance. The only thing that is certain is that Finance Minister Christian Lindner is one of the co-architects of the project. It is hard to imagine that at least Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock were not in the know. But that raises the question of why they let Scholz take the Green Party leaders by surprise. Neither the parliamentary group leaders Katharina Dröge and Britta Hasselmann nor the party leaders Omid Nouripour and Ricarda Lang knew what a huge number was coming. Scholz, on the other hand, will have secured himself in the party leadership and Lindner is already the chairman of his party.
Sharp criticism of the Green Youth
Criticism has so far only been cautious, with the Green Youth, who are strongly represented in the Greens faction, expressing themselves most sharply: “I have the feeling that to some extent social uncertainty and justified fear of war are being used to decide on very far-reaching measures “, says its co-chairman Timon Dzienus in an interview with ntv.de. “I think that’s questionable in terms of style and I don’t think it’s appropriate.” Dzienus insists on debating the questions individually, on not breaking any decisions over the knee and rejects a special fund enshrined in the Basic Law.
Greens leader Ricarda Lang, herself a spokeswoman for the party youth up until three years ago, sounds more cautious about the criticism. Because of the Russian war of aggression, her party “is faced with the task of questioning old certainties.” Her party is not pacifist at any price: “Peace policy is not the rejection of all military means,” Lang agrees mildly in her party for changes. But she also interprets Scholz’s announcements as suggestions: “We agree that defense spending must increase.” The rest is up for negotiation.
Scholz convinces the group
The Scholz speech also gave the second of three parties in the Ampelbund, which sees itself as a disarmament force, a moderate shock. In the snack bar next to the plenary hall, the only source of food during the first session of the Bundestag on a Sunday, the Social Democrats can see the confusion about the coup de main of German security policy. Scholz therefore takes almost two hours for his parliamentary group on Tuesday and gives a detailed speech in which he explains the considerations and decision-making processes.
With parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich, a recognized peace politician is behind the Chancellor’s decisions. In the pronunciation there is mainly praise, little resentment. Scholz stays connected until the end, appears 15 minutes later than planned for his departure to Israel. The Parliamentary Left, to which around half of all MPs belong, later declared that they “fully gathered” behind the statements by Scholz and Mützenich. And: “The establishment of a special fund enables other important projects from the coalition agreement to be secured.” Party leader Esken can also announce on Wednesday morning on ntv about Scholz’s plans: “The SPD is clearly at his side.”
Always consider the FDP
Only the chairwoman of the SPD junior Jusos, Jessica Rosenthal, had already complained in the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” on Tuesday: The sum of 100 billion euros “very surprised” her and asked questions about the use of the funds. There’s no point in “sinking more billions into a black hole.” In addition, the relatively small SPD group Forum Demokratische Linke opposes it: “For a well-equipped Bundeswehr, neither special assets nor additional billions are needed,” the forum explains and announces that to vehemently oppose it.
The still manageable resistance to additional Bundeswehr billions as well as to armed drones and new nuclear-capable fighter jets contains explosive power for the entire traffic light structure. The fact that Scholz takes many actors by surprise with his advance and puts them under pressure – especially in times of war – is one thing. But the question of financing weighs more heavily: Because the trick of a special fund is due to the third partner, who has the fewest ideological difficulties with the rearmament, the FDP.
The scope for action of the coalition, which started very ambitiously with a view to the energy transition, but also with a view to social projects, is becoming smaller and smaller: the energy transition, which was extremely expensive to start with, must now progress even faster, while the effects of rising energy costs on consumers and companies also have to be cushioned at great expense. Now the German economy is facing further burdens due to the Russia sanctions and nobody knows how many people will ultimately have to flee Ukraine to Germany.
Debt brake again bargaining chip
Coping with the ever-increasing burden of expenditure with special funds and other evasions despite the debt brake is also difficult for Federal Finance Minister Lindner. On the part of the SPD and the Greens, the call for a reform of the debt brake is just as loud as a new debate about charging the wealthy more heavily. The Union, whose consent to the reform of the debt brake would be needed, may also have to move on this issue because it is now in favor of rearmament and renewables.
Suddenly, the Liberals’ beliefs are up for grabs, which could have caused the coalition negotiations to fail. The SPD and the Greens finally agreed that the FDP would only get on board with a debt brake and without an additional burden on the wealthy. But if the left-wing Social Democrats and Greens are to throw their convictions overboard overnight, Scholz will hardly be able to avoid demanding the same from the FDP. Otherwise, the chancellor’s supposedly historic announcements might not even make it as footnotes in the history books.