The challenge will last for centuries. Coastal cities are doomed to suffer rising sea levels, a gradual and inevitable phenomenon as long as global average temperatures remain above pre-industrial levels. Hence the vital challenge of their adaptation to this major change. On August 26, the review Nature Cities published a long article in which researchers from different institutes and universities analyse the results of 683 studies on the adaptation policies of 199 cities located near the sea or in estuaries around the world. According to them, their preparation for this major challenge is “rather slow, limited in scope and not transformative”. “Adaptation measures are primarily designed based on past and current patterns, rather than future ones”they summarize.
This extensive review of the scientific literature describes precisely the flaws in adaptation to global warming, one of the most neglected and yet most crucial areas of climate policies. At the end of the 21st centurye century, coastal cities must indeed prepare for a rise in sea level of between 0.44 and 1 meter, according to the different scenarios, intermediate or with very high greenhouse gas emissions, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
A very long-term development still subject to major unknowns (reaction of the Antarctic, for example) and which will expose populations to multiple risks (floods, more deadly cyclones, etc.). “Most adaptations are not based on a thorough consideration – and even less on quantified scenarios – of future developments in the exposure and vulnerability of people, infrastructures and ecosystems. (…) This leads to biased assumptions about risks.”the authors continue.
Adaptation influenced by standard of living
In its latest report, the IPCC also highlighted that the implementation of adaptation in coastal cities was “limited” And “ mainly based on protection works”when it should “be adapted to the different archetypes of cities”. “Even though we can slow it down by reducing our emissions, we cannot stop sea level rise.explains Gonéri Le Cozannet, researcher at the Bureau of Geological and Mining Research and adaptation specialist. So we need to be able to plan ahead because major infrastructure works can take decades, like in Venice, but we also need to think in terms of local situations because we don’t adapt a port in the same way as a city along a beach.”
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