Lhe news spread like wildfire: cocoa is soaring high. Its price is reaching levels never seen before. In New York, on Friday February 9, during the session, it exceeded 6,000 dollars (5,600 euros) per tonne on its contract for delivery in March, peaking at 6,030 dollars. It thus pulverizes its previous historical record, of 5,379 dollars per tonne, established in 1977. Ditto in London, where the price of cocoa rose, on the same day, to 4,786 pounds sterling (5,600 euros) per tonne.
An outbreak fueled by the fear of running out of this precious commodity. All eyes are on Ivory Coast and Ghana, two countries which alone produce nearly 60% of the world’s cocoa volumes. The weather episodes have dented the cocoa trees and darkened the picture. Rain fell in abundance and favored the development of fungal diseases. Then dry and intense winds blew away hopes of future collections.
Result: even if the big harvest, which began in October 2023 and must end at the end of March, is not over, everyone is trying to weigh it. “According to estimates, Ivorian cocoa production for the 2023-2024 campaign could amount to 1.8 million tonnes, compared to 2.3 million tonnes the previous year », says François Griffon, market analyst at Nitidæ, who cites another indicator scrutinized by operators: the volumes of beans delivered to ports. But they are decreasing.
Supply deficit
The temperature rises even more in the trading rooms as investors show pessimism. Some people wonder about the structural nature of the decline in cocoa production in West Africa. Officially, the Ivorian government has no longer authorized new plantations since 2018. It is true that the forest, depleted by the wave of cocoa trees that swept over, only covers 9% of the national territory. Even the classified forests have had a cup of chocolate. “The pioneering front of deforestation offered better yields than older cocoa trees”underlines Mr. Griffon.
Some Ivorian planters may also have chosen to favor rubber or oil palm. Because, often, picking the pod means for them working for nothing. In a context of supply deficit, they had high expectations from the setting of prices for the new campaign. Alas, the price paid per kilo of “farmside” beans (purchased directly from the producer) increased from 900 to 1,000 CFA francs (from 1.37 to 1.52 euros). An increase of 11%, without comparison with the almost doubling of the price of cocoa. Especially since the bill for fertilizers and fungicides has jumped. The planters are always chocolate.
You have 15% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.