Complicated round of 16: The unpredictable favorites

The European Football Championship should have been a football festival. Never before have so many teams registered for the title. The preliminary round was sobering, too many favorites did not live up to their own requirements and ideals. Two greats can correct that impression today.

Spain – Croatia

Where does it take place? Copenhagen

Where can it be seen? From 6 p.m. on ZDF, on MagentaTV and of course in the live ticker on ntv.de.

This is how the ntv.de editors see it:

Many experts would have predicted a clear winner for this duel before the start of the tournament: Of course, the Spaniards had a lot of Corona problems in their preparation, but still have a lot of quality in the squad. And the Croatians, the runner-up world champions, had been attested to the end of an era. Especially from Luka Modric, the world-class man, the puller, some had expected that he would no longer be able to put his stamp on this EM.

And now? Everything is completely different: Spain had to stretch a lot in the third group game against Slovakia to secure progress after two poor draws – and Croatia also made it to the second round thanks to another stroke of genius from old star Modric, the eternal playmaker of the vice world champions. In his 140th international match, in the decisive 3-1 against Scotland, Modric scored himself and prepared a goal. “Nobody knows how Luka will manage to keep playing like this. You would expect him to wear off, to lose his energy, but he is still the force that drives the whole team,” enthused his national coach Zlatko Dalic.

Even with the Spaniards, who have great quality in the squad, it was mainly thanks to one man that the doubts at least disappeared in hope for a short time: Sergio Busquets, also old star, the last world champion of 2010 in Luis Enrique’s squad . “Busquets’ game was unbelievable. My goodness, how he played,” enthused the national coach after the 5-0 win over Slovakia. Croatia’s assistant coach Ivica Olic also sees the veteran as a key player for the Spaniards: “I’m not sure whether it will be possible to knock him out one hundred percent because he’s so good.”

The round of 16 between Croatia and Spain is also a duel between two directors who manage the fortunes of their teams – and who will ultimately be responsible for the outcome. Also because the Croatians, Ivan Perisic, the team’s most dangerous scorer (two goals, one assist) will be missing because of his corona infection. It depends again on the world footballer of 2018 how this game will play out.

Spain and the trouble with the goalscorer

Striker Alvaro Morata did not play, the attacker also missed a penalty against Slovakia. Before that, he hadn’t shown himself to be particularly dangerous in the rather uninspired appearances against Poland and Sweden. Malice and hatred rained down on the 28-year-old. Morata even reports insults against his family and death threats. After the game against Poland, he couldn’t sleep for nine hours. “I wish people would put themselves in my shoes,” said the attacker.

The attacks had such a quality that national coach Enrique demanded a police investigation: “It is a serious crime,” said Enrique at the press conference on the game. “Insulting his family is serious business that must be placed in the hands of the authorities and treated with the utmost severity. It involves his wife and children.”

The mood around the Spanish team was resolved, apart from the dire problems surrounding the hapless striker Morata, with the 5-0 victory over Slovakia. Sergio Busquets returned to the team after his corona illness and brought back stability, structure and success. The win against Slovakia was a real “relief”, according to Enrique. The Iberians, who had become European champions in 2008 and 2012 and occasionally won the World Cup, but never made it to the quarter-finals of a major tournament afterwards, have lost their great self-confidence. And yet: In the large circle of favorites, they reported back with the last group game.

Croatia’s well-being now depends on Modric alone

All teams want to go to the final at Wembley.

No, Luka Modric is far from being allowed to retire. It would be a huge problem for Croatian football, which fell into a hole after the 2018 World Cup and didn’t make a lot of positive headlines. In the Nations League it was even 0: 6 against today’s opponent. Now that is a fate that they do not have exclusive. And yet the weal and woe of the national team depend heavily on the remaining pillars of the 2018 team: Ivan Perisic and Luka Modric. Perisic is out, Modric has to fix it. He did that in the group stage when it mattered. After a defeat against England (0: 1) and a draw against the Czech Republic (1: 1) Modric organized the advancement against Scotland (3: 1) with a world class performance. Goalkeeper Dominik Livaković is confident of victory: “We were definitely not their first choice,” he said. The mood in the team is good, and the win against Scotland gave an additional boost. “We can’t wait for the next game,” added defender Josip Juranović. “Spain have an excellent team but we have to look to ourselves.”

France – Switzerland

Where does it take place? Bucharest

Where can it be seen? From 9 p.m. on ARD, on MagentaTV and of course in the live ticker on ntv.de.

This is how the ntv.de editors see it:

So how good are they, these French? This over-favorite with the offensive from the delicatessen department, which had scared the German national team so terribly in their first group game that they themselves had an impressive sham dominance against the “defending world champion” (Joachim Löw), but nothing more?

Against Hungary (1: 1) and Portugal (2: 2) the world championship shine, the radiance of the over-favorite, was already badly clouded. The fact is: With Karim Benzema, a returnee who had been expected as a stress factor in the Equipe Tricolore has seamlessly re-inserted. Instead, the Real Madrid professional scored twice against Portugal. Didier Deschamps’ team is not yet shining, but got through the “group of deaths” F without any worries. But if you take the rooms for Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann and Benzema, they don’t get going as well as they should be in their class .

Switzerland, on the other hand, is confidently looking forward to the game with the top favorites: “On paper, the French are the favorites, we have to be honest,” said captain Granit Xhaka. “They are world champions. But we don’t have to make ourselves too small either. I say optimistically: 55:45 for France.”

Fickle world champion

Whoever brings the toughest preliminary group of this EM behind them as group winners has little to blame: At the beginning passive-dominant and despite the narrow result completely safe 1-0 against Germany, at the end a 2-2 against Portugal, who was doomed to score, for the superstar Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice on penalties: Everything is actually good for the world champion. But the surprising loss of points to Hungary, the greatest possible underdog, caused a frown. Everything checked – says coach Deschamps: “Winning the group was the most important thing and we did it. We have to rest now and prepare for the start of a new competition.”

The ensemble, which is well-stocked with superstars, has not yet been able to bring its class to the field with perseverance, and they still owed a lot in the offensive. It may sound grotesque given the accumulation of real offensive miracle weapons, but the French team has traditionally been more defensive – and was surprisingly vulnerable. Except against Germany.

Swiss offensive-defensive divide

The Swiss national team did what you could expect from them: As the third-best group third they made it to the round of 16. 1: 1 against Wales, a cracking 0: 3 against Italy and finally a strong 3: 1 against weak Turks, because Xherdan Shaquiri used a little magic, as the English “Guardian” wrote admiringly: Mission accomplished. On the offensive, the Confederates with Haris Seferovic, Breel Embolo and Granit Xhaka have a lot of quality that is enough to cope with a moderately complicated group. Bigger dreams, on the other hand, stand in the way of a sometimes shaky back team, which was particularly badly dealt with by Italy. Seferovic knows the solution to equalize the gap in the Swiss team: “We played against Italy as individuals, against Turkey as a real team. That is the right way.”

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