Worry about severe winter
Germans hardly save gas anymore
03/14/2023, 1:35 p.m
The good news is that German gas storage facilities were still 79 percent full at the end of January. And the bad: “A harsh winter of 2023/24 could quickly become a serious endurance test,” says the managing director of the Bavarian Business Association. Not to mention possible sabotage of pipelines.
According to an analysis by the research institute Prognos AG, efforts to save gas are noticeably decreasing. “In January 2023, natural gas consumption in Germany was two percent above the long-term average of weather-related consumption,” said the Bavarian Business Association (VBW), which commissioned the study in Munich. “This means that for the first time since April 2022, behavior-related savings can no longer be demonstrated,” said VBW CEO Bertram Brossardt, “neither in private households nor in industry and commerce”. In order to ensure security of supply in view of the lack of gas supplies from Russia, savings of at least 15 percent are necessary in the coming winter.
This winter, the mild weather in particular prevented a shortage. In 2024, however, Russian gas supplies were completely absent, as Brossardt emphasized. “A severe winter of 2023/24 could quickly become a serious endurance test.”
So far, however, the mild weather has ensured low gas consumption, the German gas storage facilities were still 79 percent full at the end of January, write the Prognos analysts in a study for the Association of Bavarian Business. Natural gas imports from Norway and the volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the world market are at a high level. “Thanks to comprehensive preparations, the mild weather and savings, we are doing better than expected in the current heating period,” says Brossardt.
Although Russia has completely stopped its pipeline transports to Germany, “the LNG deliveries from Russia to the EU are still at a high level”. With the completion of three LNG terminals and the construction of three more, security of supply is increasing. “All in all, there is a high probability that a gas shortage can be prevented.” Risks remained in the savings efforts with regard to possible sabotage of pipelines, the temperatures in the coming winter and the consequences of political intervention.