by Joseph Ax
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Americans are being called to the polls on Tuesday for midterm elections that will decide a majority in Congress for the next two years and, if Republicans win, severely limit Joe Biden’s powers until in the 2024 presidential election.
It is a tradition for the party that controls the White House to lose the “midterms” and according to the polls, this year should be no exception, with soaring inflation and crime having pushed the limitation of the right to abortion and the violence of the assault on the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump on January 6, 2021.
The 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are in contention on Tuesday. Republicans look set to win back a majority in the House while control of the Senate – currently split 50-50, with a deciding vote for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris – could hinge on four key ballots in Arizona, Georgia, in Nevada and Pennsylvania.
But against the backdrop of these parliamentary elections, it is the presidential election of 2024 that is already looming.
Beaten by Joe Biden two years ago, even if he continues to refuse to recognize his failure, former Republican President Donald Trump hinted to his supporters that he could return to the campaign, promising them Monday evening in the ‘Ohio a “big announcement” on November 15th.
Hundreds of Republicans who buy into Donald Trump’s unfounded “stolen election” theory are vying this year for positions that would allow them to influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in the “swing states”, States likely to switch to one camp or the other. Dozens of governorships and secretary of state – the official responsible for overseeing elections in each state – are notably at stake.
With more than 42 million Americans having voted in advance for the “midterms” – by mail or in person – the results may not be known for several days in the most disputed states. The majority in the Senate could even be determined by the outcome of a possible second round in Georgia on December 6.
RISK OF PARALYSIS FOR BIDEN
If the Republicans control the House of Representatives, they will be able to prevent the Democrats from implementing their program, in particular the protection of the right to abortion called into question last June by the Supreme Court and the fight against climate change.
They could also start a showdown with Joe Biden on the debt ceiling, block parliamentary investigations targeting Donald Trump and launch them on the contrary against Joe Biden and his family.
At the same time, the Republicans intend to perpetuate the tax cuts decided by Donald Trump in 2017, in particular those granted to companies on which the Democrats have tried unsuccessfully to reverse for two years.
If they win a majority in the Senate, the elected officials of the “Grand Old Party” will also be able to block the judicial appointments of Joe Biden, including in the event of a vacancy on the Supreme Court, as they had done at the end of the second term of Barak Obama.
The sharing of power in Washington will mechanically increase the weight of the Supreme Court, with a clearly conservative majority, which could be called upon to decide all the major societal questions, as it did on the right to abortion or the port of weapons.
If Joe Biden has multiplied calls for mobilization to “save democracy” in recent days, some Democratic candidates have preferred to distance themselves from the tenant of the White House, whose satisfaction rating has fallen below 40% – a similar level to that of Trump.
The Supreme Court’s controversial decision to reverse Roe v. Wade, who legalized the right to abortion in 1973, once galvanized Democratic voters, but the momentum has waned and pollsters now expect Republicans to win at least 20 seats in the Chamber, enough to obtain a majority there.
As often, it is economic concerns that will decide the outcome of the election and despite a bright job market, Joe Biden has failed to curb inflation or convince Americans that his spending policy was not partly responsible for a rise in prices not seen for forty years.
(Report by Joseph Ax, French version Tangi Salaün, edited by Bertrand Boucey)