Contested city surrounded?
ISW: The battle for Bachmut is getting even fiercer
2/1/2023 at 12:13 p.m
A bitter battle has been raging for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine for a long time. The Russians now want to have the city “operatively” surrounded. A US think tank thinks that’s unlikely. She suspects that the offensive has not yet reached its peak.
According to Moscow, Russian forces are trying to take control of the village of Bakhmut in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. “Bakhmut is now operationally surrounded, our armed forces are closing the ring around the city,” said Jan Gagin, adviser to the Russian-appointed governor of the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic”, Denis Puschilin.
A fight is currently underway for control of the highway connecting the city with the nearby town of Chasiv Yar. Russia has said it has taken control of several locations around Bakhmut. His troops and mercenaries from the Wagner Group have been waging a war of attrition there for months.
However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses the situation somewhat differently. According to the think tank’s most recent report, it is unlikely that Russian forces would surprisingly encircle the city. However, it is conceivable that the Ukrainian side could withdraw in order to avoid high losses. In its statements, the ISW refers, among other things, to Ukrainian military information. The institute does not make any forecast as to whether Bakhmut will soon fall to the Russian armed forces.
ISW: Russians rely on conventional armed forces
According to the think tank, Russia is now increasingly relying on conventional armed forces in the battle for Bakhmut. The offensive around the small town, which had previously been led by the Russian private army Wagner, had not yet reached its peak, the think tank wrote. An earlier assessment from the end of December, according to which the climax of the fighting in Bakhmut had already been reached, proved to be incorrect, it said. This only referred to the deployment of Wagner’s private army.
Since then, however, the Russian side has deployed enough conventional forces to keep the fighting going. According to the institute, a realignment in Bakhmut could mean that conventional Russian armed forces would completely replace Wagner’s battle-weary private army – even assuming that Russian conventional forces could ultimately take the city.
Russia attacked Ukraine more than 11 months ago. Bachmut has been at the center of the fighting for months. The Russian army is trying to bypass Bakhmut from the north and south in order to force the Ukrainian army to withdraw from the small town. Both sides are said to have suffered massive losses in the bloody battles. Ukraine is urgently demanding heavy weapons from the West to stop the advance of Russian troops and liberate occupied towns.