VSIt is in vain to search for the words “debt” or “deficit” in Emmanuel Macron’s presidential program. During the campaign, the question of public finances was not raised (except, with the success that we know, by Valérie Pécresse). It’s time to get there.
The problem is not the imminence of the threat. The European Commission’s recent forecasts estimate a fall of 5 points in the debt ratio between 2020 and 2023. And if the rates have risen a little, they remain very low in real terms. We must certainly consider the possibility of a real recession, and we can imagine a return of anxiety on the markets, for example in the event of political tensions in Italy. But, fundamentally, this is not what should alarm us.
Nor is the problem that the government is mobilizing public finances in the fight against inflation. However heterodox they may be, regulated tariffs, VAT reductions and targeted subsidies are useful responses that make it possible to preserve purchasing power and contain the rise in inflation expectations. France paid more than that to restore its competitiveness.
The problem is not, finally, the bet on full employment. As Patrick Artus wrote in these columns, it is high time to stop taking for granted what, for many of our neighbors, has not been so for ages. Mass underemployment is an economic and social calamity to which we have been resigned for too long and whose effects are massive. Imagine, for example, that in 2019 the budgetary expenditure for employment (compensation, training, relief, incentives) amounted to 144 billion against 128 billion for education (from primary school to doctorate)? By putting 20 billion more on education, by how much would we ultimately improve performance on employment?
Correct the flaws
The good budgetary strategy is therefore not to put on the cape because the weather is darkening. It is to invest wisely to correct our failings and raise the level of activity. But that shouldn’t stop counting. And that’s the rub.
In the next twenty years, France will have to spend significantly more on education. More than the somewhat abstract PISA tests, the reports on the difficulty of recruiting teachers or the surprise of Ukrainian children at the mediocre mathematical level of our schools have underlined the extent of our delay. As for the university and public research, they are devastated. How much will it take? Certainly more than 10 billion per year.
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