condemnation, illness or death
And if Biden or Trump cannot run?
By Roland Peters
January 21, 2024, 10:03 a.m
Next week the mass could already be said and the duel for the White House would also be called in 2024: Joe Biden against Donald Trump. But what happens if something happens to one of them? That depends entirely on the timing.
Are the two favorites for the presidential candidacy fit for office? The Americans have been there for months convincedthat they are not. A narrow majority of 51 percent said in August that Donald Trump was too old for another presidency. The former head of state is 77 years old. At the end of another term it would be 81 years. Voters are overwhelmingly unanimous on the same question about incumbent Joe Biden: 77 percent thought the Democrat was too old. Biden would even be 86 years old at the end of another term. He is already the oldest sitting president in US history.
Biden is no longer the most agile, as this becomes clear again and again in public appearances. Even at Trump’s age, things can happen quickly. A lot can happen with almost a year until the November elections. The Republican also has several criminal cases pending against him and could, in extreme cases, be excluded from the election. So it could be that one of the two is suddenly no longer available in the middle of the election campaign or even shortly before the swearing in. And then? It depends on the timing whether and how much domestic political chaos there is in the USA. An overview.
Political emergency and combat votes
If an accident were to occur between now and March, the consequences would not be serious for the Republicans: There are other registered primary candidates. March 5th is “Super Tuesday,” when the desired party candidate is elected in 15 states at the same time. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are currently there. So there are alternatives in an orderly manner.
It would be more difficult for the Democrats because the competition for the candidacy only takes place on paper and the deadlines for registering an application have expired in most states. Biden is practically set as the incumbent. If he were no longer able to run – for example due to serious health problems or even death – the Democrats would have to find a special way, according to the US magazine “538”, change deadlines, postpone primaries and practically reorganize the entire process in order to be able to elect a candidate. who can also find broad support within the party and among voters.
It would be a political emergency for the respective party if either Trump or Biden were to leave between March and June. Most states will have already made their decision and will have to send a certain number of delegates. At this point, it may already be mathematically impossible for new applicants to collect the necessary votes for a nomination at the party conference. According to the primary election results, the states send their delegates there to elect the candidate. The Republicans reach the majority threshold on March 12th and the Democrats on March 19th.
Also no longer the youngest: Donald Trump
(Photo: AP)
There could potentially be battle votes at the party conferences, with new candidates vying for Biden or Trump’s delegates. If things remain peaceful, they could simply choose the remaining running mate: for the Democrats, that would be US Vice President Kamala Harris.
If someone can no longer run after the primaries have ended, new applicants must be nominated directly by delegates and must find a minimum number of supporters there. Such battle votes were common before 1972. The Democrats, for example, nominated Hubert Humphrey in 1968 without him having taken part in a primary election. Because of the chaotic circumstances, the current area code system was then introduced.
Invalid results, changes to the law and replacements
Things would probably be chaotic if a candidate who had already been nominated died or was no longer allowed to run, i.e. after the party conferences. All primary election results would be invalid. For both Democrats and Republicans, the party leadership can then choose a candidate. That could trigger wild wrangling within the party as different wings try to push one of their own as a candidate. It wouldn’t matter whether the ballot papers for the presidential election had already been printed – because technically speaking, voters are voting for the parties’ electors, not the candidates themselves.
And what if someone dies after their electoral triumph, i.e. election day on November 4th and the state electors vote on December 17th? The party leadership could issue a stipulation that they should vote for their running mate or even a completely different candidate instead. Not all states allow such a change in policy; they would have to adapt their laws. This can drag on. If there is no majority among the electors, it is Congress’ turn. In the House of Representatives, the states each decide who becomes president with one vote. The senators elect the vice president.
The simplest case would be a death shortly beforehand. Trump or Biden have been elected, the electors have confirmed him, Congress has ratified the votes – but the winner dies before the swearing in on January 20, 2025. Then the Vice President would step up and swear by the Constitution of the United States of America. This also applies in the following four years of the presidency: If the head of state dies or is deemed unfit to hold office, the previous deputy is called upon. The USA will in no way become leaderless.