More than 110 countries want to see COP28 adopt the objective of tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday in Dubai. The European Union launched an appeal in the spring to this effect, supported by the Emirati presidency of COP28 then successively taken up by the G7 and G20 countries (80% of global greenhouse gas emissions).
“Send a strong message to investors and consumers”
“Today, our call has transformed into a powerful movement. More than 110 countries have already joined it,” declared Ursula von der Leyen who spoke from the podium. “I invite you all to include these objectives in the final decision of the COP”, “we will thus send a strong message to investors and consumers”, she added. This objective is a point of negotiation that is both parallel and closely linked to the much more difficult discussions on the reduction, or even the exit from fossil fuels.
Illustration of this tension: when the G20 committed in September to “encourage efforts” to achieve this objective, its final declaration remained silent on the fate of fossil fuels. The tripling of renewable energies (wind, solar, hydroelectricity, biomass, etc.) is the primary driver of the scenarios for carbon neutrality. If the world wants to stay below 1.5°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial period, this is “the most important lever”, to replace coal, gas and oil, underlines the International Energy Agency (OUCH).
Progress is already there. From 2015 to 2022, renewable installations grew by an average of 11% each year. And against a backdrop of soaring oil and gas prices and energy insecurity linked to the war in Ukraine, the IEA expects unprecedented growth in 2023 (around +30%). Not all countries will have to make the same efforts, underlines the Ember think tank in an analysis which judges the target “attainable”: some are already on a doubling trajectory. Other large emitters (Australia, Japan, South Korea, United Arab Emirates, etc.) have room for improvement.