In a risky horse trade, Brussels releases the Corona billions for Poland. The EU thus gives greater weight to its role as a geopolitical actor than that of the guardian of the rule of law.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets the Ukraine frontline state Poland.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to Warsaw with an olive branch in her hand and 36 billion euros in her luggage. The country’s national-conservative leadership has prevailed: the money from the Corona development fund is being paid out, although Poland has not yet restored the separation of powers.
The success of the Poles shows a dilemma of the EU: Does the Union want to be a principled legal community? Or, if necessity requires it, also a realpolitik actor?
Brussels has given a clear answer in this case. It would rather live with the politicization of the judiciary in the most important Eastern European member state than jeopardize its role in the fight for Ukraine.
Poland’s rule of law concerns everyone
The decision was not easy for Brussels. Two commissioners voted against the deal: powerful vice-commission president Frans Timmermans and respected competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager. Three other Commissioners, all familiar with the dossier, warned the President not to let things slip.
Brussels’ concern for the Polish rule of law is not an imperial encroachment, as Warsaw likes to portray. It is not primarily a conflict between the EU and Warsaw, but a Polish problem. The functioning separation of powers is primarily in the interest of the citizens of Poland themselves. The opposition there emphasizes this again and again.
But the problem extends beyond Poland. Rule of law conditions in the member states are the first prerequisite for the common market to function. In addition, without an independent judiciary, nobody knows whether the transfer payments across Europe are arriving at the right place and being used correctly. The taxpayers of the Union have a great interest in this.
It was precisely for this reason that the so-called rule of law mechanism was introduced in 2020. Poland and Hungary had vehemently opposed this.
Many in Brussels describe the Commission’s concession as giving in to Warsaw. But there is an understandable reason: The EU is experiencing its geopolitical baptism of fire with the Ukraine war and is dependent on Poland.
Europe’s center of gravity is further east
The country is the frontline state in the struggle for Ukraine. Poland is the most important staging area for arms assistance against the Russian invasion. It continues to be the main destination for Ukrainian refugees. More than 3.5 million people have arrived there since the beginning of the war.
However, the agreement with Poland also brings Brussels two concrete advantages. First, it drives a wedge between Warsaw and Budapest. Hungary, which has long been able to rely on Poland’s unconditional support, is now on its own. For Orban, obstructions are becoming riskier. And secondly, by releasing the Corona funds, the Commission is buying the withdrawal of the Polish veto on the common corporate tax in the EU. A classic horse trade.
That it has come about shows that the EU’s political center of gravity is shifting eastwards – accelerated by the war, but not triggered by it. The Franco-German tandem no longer sets the pace. It has become a tricycle, on which Poland is also sitting.
However, Brussels should not simply capitulate. It must closely review Warsaw’s promised steps to restore the separation of powers and hold back remittances if Poland fails to deliver.
After all, the conflict with Russia is not only about delimiting spheres of influence, but also about defending values. Poland endangers these values with the politicization of the judiciary.