When will Germany reach its vaccination target? Is herd immunity still possible? And how successful is the corona vaccination campaign compared to other countries? The most important facts.
According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), at least 85 percent of the total population must be immune, i.e. recovered or double vaccinated, to stop the spread of Covid-19. The old federal government had already moved away from the original goal of achieving so-called herd immunity by “towards summer” in spring 2021.
The new federal government wanted to achieve a quota of 80 percent for the first vaccinations by January 7, 2022. When that goal was missed, she postponed it to the end of January. This plan also failed; instead of 80 percent, only 75.8 percent had received a first dose at that point. In the case of double vaccinations, the rate of 80 percent will probably not be reached until mid-May 2022 if Germany continues to vaccinate at the current rate.
The booster campaign has also stalled. The number of first vaccinations is also falling again.
However, the RKI assumes that there are more corona vaccinated than in the official statistics. It is obvious that the “reported vaccination rate is to be understood as a minimum vaccination rate and an underestimation of up to five percentage points for the proportion of people who have been vaccinated at least once or who have been vaccinated twice can be assumed”, writes the RKI. On the other hand, the vaccination rate is also overestimated by a few percentage points because a simple vaccination with Johnson & Johnson is no longer considered a full vaccination, but was counted as such until mid-January 2022.
In November, Germany donated around 10.2 million doses of Biontech to third countries. Subsequently, Germany was no longer able to meet the growing demand in practices and vaccination centers.
Already in the summer, Germany had waived many deliveries of Moderna; these went to other EU countries. The Federal Republic is also donating its cans from Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca to third countries – “until further notice”, according to the Ministry of Health. As a result, the number of cans delivered in the third quarter of 2021 was significantly lower than in the second quarter.
Additional vaccines could then be approved in the EU in early 2022, including Sanofi’s protein-based vaccine and those of the Russian Gamaleya Institute and the Chinese manufacturer Sinovac. The protein-based vaccine Novavax has already been approved. The first classic inactivated vaccine from the French-Austrian manufacturer Valneva is also in the starting blocks. Unlike mRNA or vector vaccines, this consists of killed pathogens. The method has been well researched and is also used for tetanus or the flu.
A few countries such as Great Britain and Israel immunized their citizens against Covid-19 faster than Germany. When the family doctors started with the corona vaccinations after Easter and the shortage of vaccines was somewhat alleviated by additional orders in the second quarter, the Federal Republic caught up after an initially sluggish vaccination campaign. It now has a higher vaccination rate than the United States. In a Europe-wide comparison, however, Germany is in the middle.
Not all federal states vaccinate at the same pace. In the north and west and in city states, for example, the vaccination rate is higher than in the east and south and in some non-city states.
In August, the estimated effectiveness of the 18 to 59-year-olds who had been double-vaccinated up to that point in time against a symptomatic Covid 19 disease was more than 80 percent; according to the RKI, it is now only a good 40 percent.
The reason: About six months after the second vaccination dose the number of antibodies directed against Covid-19 is decreasing, especially in older people. Therefore, the number of doubly vaccinated on the Inten increasedsive stations at times strongly. Booster vaccinations helped reduce these vaccine breakthroughs.
Broken down by vaccination status, it can be seen that the vaccines provide very good protection against a severe course in all age groups. People with booster vaccination are best protected.
According to a study from South Africa the mRNA vaccines also protect well against severe courses in the omicron variant. However, the protection against infection is much lower – this is also reflected in the incidences broken down by vaccination status.
A booster vaccination is a renewed vaccination after a basic immunization against Covid-19. This refresher is intended to reactivate the immune protection that decreases over time, i.e. to boost it.
The Standing Vaccination Committee (Stiko) currently only recommends it for adults whose primary immunization was at least three months ago. For particularly vulnerable and exposed groups, Stiko even recommends a second booster vaccination.
In Germany and many other European countries, the booster campaign was initially rather sluggish. In the meantime, however, the Federal Republic has caught up.
However, a high number of booster vaccinations alone is not very meaningful. Because many countries with a very high booster rate had initially relied on less effective vaccines from China or Russia, for example, which is why protection there decreased earlier than in countries that mainly vaccinated mRNA vaccines. Israel is a special case.
In theory, herd immunity also protects unvaccinated people because it breaks chains of infection faster. The vaccination rate required for this depends on the effectiveness of the vaccines and the number of reproductions of the virus or the highly contagious mutants.
Herd immunity for Sars-CoV-2 could occur as soon as between 80 and 90 percent of the total population, i.e. at least 66.5 million Germans, are completely immune. Before the emergence of new highly contagious variants, the WHO assumed herd immunity from a vaccination rate of around 60 to 70 percent.
In the group of over 18-year-olds, more than 85 percent have already been vaccinated at least once. Of the remaining adults, however, only a minority are willing to be vaccinated. This is shown by a survey on vaccination readiness carried out regularly by the RKI.
In addition, the vaccines available to date offer good protection against a severe course of the disease, but less protection against infection. Unlike the measles vaccine, people vaccinated against Sars-CoV-2 do not have “sterile immunity”, so they can continue to infect others.